I feel like every year, I start these by saying I've been posting one of these per year since 2013 and that this most recent year is the craziest one yet. I am extremely confident that the most dedicated and die-hard Cubs fans who witnessed the events of this year would agree--this really was the most insane season of all time.
Of course, you have the 10-game winning streaks, and the 9 game losing streak. You had a team that started off almost as hot as they started off last year, blowing through the competition to lead the NL Central--who then experienced some traumatic episodes in Milwaukee and on the South Side, and fell into a terrible hole where they were worse than every single team in baseball (I am pretty sure the Rockies and the Angels did better over that stretch; the Cubs were tied with the Royals in that period)--who then rebounded and briefly reclaimed glory as one of the best in the MLB, who then backslid slightly, but still battled to compete with the Brewers for the division, coming as close as 3 or 3.5 games within them in August--who then fumbled near the end of the season, losing the top wild card spot to San Diego, leading to an abortive post-season, not unlike the 2 game cruel dispatch in 2020, or the disappointing 2008 duel with the Dodgers.
The 2025 and 2026 postseasons had some things in common--we lost Game 1 against San Diego, but we rallied to win 2 and 3, because we were at home--and it was too hard to beat San Diego at their home park. And many of the same players absolutely choked. Even so, the 2025 postseason ended things on rather optimistic terms--we really were just 1 game away from making it to the NLCS, and the NLDS games were truly competitive. Things were looking up, and the team made moves that spelled out they really wanted to go for it all.
It did work, to an extent. We did end the season as one of the top offensive teams in baseball, and despite the outrageously bad luck with injuries to the pitching staff, cobbled together an adequate enough performance to handily (and then barely) make the playoffs.
Ultimately, the total record fell short of 2025, and 2024, and it felt like 2023 again--where we didn't actually make the playoffs, because we also had a horrible slide near the end of the season. This year we were strong enough to last to that point, but it felt as though all were running on fumes by October. 89-73 isn't bad--but it's not 92-70. It's not a success in comparison to last year, but this is the way things worked out, and I believe they were just as good--the slightly disappointing result is mostly due to bad luck.
This was them at their best, after the 2nd 10-game win streak, and the way I prefer to remember them:
More walk-offs than any other team in the MLB.
1st in runs scored (850; Milwaukee at #2 with 832).
1st in RBIs (804; Milwaukee at #2 with 788--and I wonder, do you not get an RBI when you walk in a run, or score on a double-play? I digress.).
1st in Walks (674; Milwaukee at #2 with 668).
1st in Slugging% & OPS (.428/.767; L.A. Dodgers at #2 with .424/.762)
Yeah they weren't quite #1 in Home Runs (#3 behind Houston and NY Yankees), or hits (#6, notably barely squeaking past the Washington Nationals, and behind the Pirates and Rockies)--but on the whole, it's clear they are at the very least in the Top 5 for offense, and most likely in the Top 3 and maybe even #1--and yet, and yet, what happens when they have runners in scoring position?
They drop down to #21, at .243. The Rays, one of the best teams in baseball, who just swept the Yankees and will play in the ALCS (and now, the World Series), were #1, at .283. Of course you know MIL was #2, and the only playoff teams the Cubs eclipsed in this category were the Red Sox (.241) and Cleveland (.239). It's worth noting the White Sox were basically exactly the same (.243) though in spot #20.
Situational hitting was the offensive weakness, and of course pitching problems accounted for the inability to secure a higher playoff seed. The stats probably don't even look that bad, however, because they did manage to hold it together well enough for major success over the course of the season.
ERA: 4.12 (two spots above league average (4.17), far below the Yankees #1 spot at 3.24, and MIL at #2 with 3.51
Strikeouts: 1,260 (26th, far below league average of 1,357, and the Phillies at #1 with 1,577 and MIL (always #2 it seems) at 1,544.
Innings Pitched: #1 (1,447.0 - not exactly a meaningful accomplishment - also why #1 in walk-off wins isn't all that impressive--we just played the most extra innings, it seems)
Saves: 23rd at 36 (league average, 42, Rays at #1 with 58, MIL at #2 with 55)
BB/9: #8 at 3.1 (again, not horrible at all, Rays at #1 with 2.6 and semi-oddly, Mariners at #2 with 2.8)
We have a bigger swing-and-miss problem than we do an ERA problem. We have bullpen problems. We had an injury problem, and we did the best we could---and finally, the main big story: unlike last year, we are losing lots of players because their contracts are up, and then there's this looming Collective Bargaining Situation that I don't care to opine about here since I do not know enough. I'll just say, from my own limited experience in 1994, the situation is not at all comparable, in terms of owners and players both making substantially more money than their counterparts 30 years ago. Baseball, over the past couple seasons, is back. I do not understand how there can be a strike when this much revenue is on the table.
Then there's the weird ABS thing, which didn't completely change the game, but added another strategy to master. Rules continue to be debated, and on balance, I think this is a good thing, though I do think more on-the-field calls should be reviewable. To the players....in rough order of best to worst.
***
Pete Crow-Armstrong: A+
Postseason: 0 for 7, 1 BB, 4 Ks.
It's not like he was the only that choked. And it's not fair to blame the playoff bust on him. We wouldn't have been anywhere close to a playoff team without him. He carried the Cubs in 2026, without question. No one even comes close. He was the only All-Star.
Alex Bregman: A-
It's not like he was the only that choked. And it's not fair to blame the playoff bust on him. We wouldn't have been anywhere close to a playoff team without him. He carried the Cubs in 2026, without question. No one even comes close. He was the only All-Star.
Alex Bregman: A-
Of course, it was a tale of 2 seasons for AB (no one calls him AB, but I'm starting that--because no one has held a candle to KB at 3B since).
In 431 plate appearances in the first half, he hit .241, 9 HR, 41 RBI, OBP of .336 and OPS of .696.
In 271 plate appearances in the second half, he hit .303, 19 HR, 52 RBI, OBP of .385 and OPS of 1.010.
In 431 plate appearances in the first half, he hit .241, 9 HR, 41 RBI, OBP of .336 and OPS of .696.
In 271 plate appearances in the second half, he hit .303, 19 HR, 52 RBI, OBP of .385 and OPS of 1.010.
All told, his WAR (one day may write a whole separate post about this flawed metric, and I have probably mentioned it every single year) of 5.8 was his best since his career-best year of 2019--and while 28 HRs does not come close to 41 HRs, it's clear at this point that Bregman was back, and that his signing was one of the best front-office moves of the offseason.
We lost Justin Turner, and when PCA had his SMFDB moment at the Rate, it seemed he was lost and so was the team, and Bregman couldn't help matters. Quietly, he did, and ultimately he served as an admirable replacement for Turner as a veteran leader and mentor, while obviously making far greater contributions on his own. He continued to struggle until the 2nd half, but once he figured things out, the team seemed absolutely unstoppable at times, but for the pitching weaknesses. We needed to score a ton of runs to win, basically. We needed a big cushion to feel safe that the bullpen wouldn't blow it. Bregman was better in the end than I think most expected him to be, and it would be a lot to expect the same out of him in 2027 (to say nothing of PCA above--it is totally unfair to expect he will ever be able to replicate what he accomplished this year--it was a historic season that is one of the greatest in the history of the franchise, and arguably the history of the sport itself). Regardless, if both of them can turn in strong performances next year, we are maybe 25% of the way to a deeper postseason run. They will be here, but unfortunately, the future of the #3 player is totally uncertain at the moment.
Seiya Suzuki: B+
Seiya's 2026 was better than his 2025 in most ways, but not all. He had a 5.1 WAR this year to 2.6 last year (which feels a bit inflated). He hit .270 this year--much better than .245 last year, which didn't even seem that problematic. He played in 8 less games this year (injured at the start) but appeared in 143. He had 6 less home runs (26 rather than 32 last year) and 17 less RBIs (from 103 down to 86).
He was the 2nd most important hitter last year (probably tied with Tucker) and 3rd most important this year. And the big elephant in the room this year is that both he and Ian Happ are not under contract for 2027. Will the Cubs keep either, both, or neither?
Frankly, I would not let Seiya go. The Blue Jays already want him. He may get a bigger contract than he got five years ago, because he proved himself at the MLB level, though he is now "on the wrong side of 30." He was making an average of about $17 MM per year. I'd give him $60MM/3 years, but his agent may want him to go for $22MM or $25MM/year. We are not able to bring in anyone like the Polar Bear (a missed opportunity), Soto, Ohtani, Machado, Tatis Jr., Caminero, Schwarber, etc. The only comparable option is Randy Arozarena.
Now I like Arozarena a lot actually, but I think he belongs in Seattle. I like the idea of players being married to cities. (Of course, the primary conclusion of this post will be that if the Cubs hope to compete in the NLCS or World Series in 2027, they will need to pony up and persuade Tarik Skubal to be the next Jon Lester--but I believe Detroit's owner is rather wealthy, and can afford to bring back Skubal, and he is beloved there, and he loves it there, and I think he belongs there--and no one will be surprised if the Dodgers outbid everyone.) I prefer to keep Seiya rather than start over with Arozarena, who is a different type of player--while he does have some pop, he does not have quite as much slug as Seiya, and even though we killed it in home runs this year, it felt like PCA carried the brunt of that. The top 3 here mirror the top 3 in home runs, and we wouldn't have been #1 without Seiya, either.
Frankly, I would not let Seiya go. The Blue Jays already want him. He may get a bigger contract than he got five years ago, because he proved himself at the MLB level, though he is now "on the wrong side of 30." He was making an average of about $17 MM per year. I'd give him $60MM/3 years, but his agent may want him to go for $22MM or $25MM/year. We are not able to bring in anyone like the Polar Bear (a missed opportunity), Soto, Ohtani, Machado, Tatis Jr., Caminero, Schwarber, etc. The only comparable option is Randy Arozarena.
Now I like Arozarena a lot actually, but I think he belongs in Seattle. I like the idea of players being married to cities. (Of course, the primary conclusion of this post will be that if the Cubs hope to compete in the NLCS or World Series in 2027, they will need to pony up and persuade Tarik Skubal to be the next Jon Lester--but I believe Detroit's owner is rather wealthy, and can afford to bring back Skubal, and he is beloved there, and he loves it there, and I think he belongs there--and no one will be surprised if the Dodgers outbid everyone.) I prefer to keep Seiya rather than start over with Arozarena, who is a different type of player--while he does have some pop, he does not have quite as much slug as Seiya, and even though we killed it in home runs this year, it felt like PCA carried the brunt of that. The top 3 here mirror the top 3 in home runs, and we wouldn't have been #1 without Seiya, either.
Nico Hoerner: B
Nico took a step back in 2026 from 2025, but he still had a respectable year. His power numbers went up (though I guess only by 1--but it felt like it was more than 1, right?) and his batting average slipped from near-league-leader-level (.297) to comfortably-above-league-average-level (.265). His defense remained fantastic (the Cubs were in fact indisputably the #1 defense in the MLB).
In the postseason?
Everybody f***ing sucked--except Nico (and I guess Seiya was alright). This was a similar trend to last year (except Busch was also decent in postseason last year). Nico hit .500 in 2 games, and had the only extra base hit of the postseason. Now .450 over 5 games and 13 additional plate appearances may be slightly more impressive, but in any case, even if his numbers weren't quite as sparkling in the regular season, this team has a playoff performance problem, and Nico is not included in that group. Thank God we signed him to an extension, and that he will be with us for several more years. He belongs here and while he may still play a few more years at the end of this new contract, by that point, he will likely have established himself as a Cubs Hall of Famer, if he hasn't already.
Everybody f***ing sucked--except Nico (and I guess Seiya was alright). This was a similar trend to last year (except Busch was also decent in postseason last year). Nico hit .500 in 2 games, and had the only extra base hit of the postseason. Now .450 over 5 games and 13 additional plate appearances may be slightly more impressive, but in any case, even if his numbers weren't quite as sparkling in the regular season, this team has a playoff performance problem, and Nico is not included in that group. Thank God we signed him to an extension, and that he will be with us for several more years. He belongs here and while he may still play a few more years at the end of this new contract, by that point, he will likely have established himself as a Cubs Hall of Famer, if he hasn't already.
Swanson went down near the end, and Nico shifted over to Shortstop, and he had a couple flubs but also made a couple highlight plays. It felt like he might be the leadoff hitter, but PCA became that, and I don't know exactly, but I feel like Nico should have been hitting #2 in the postseason. I don't have a huge problem with him hitting 5th or 6th, but I'm just curious--who has the highest batting average with RISP?
[I'm sorry but I need to complain. It would be super easy to tell you where players rank in terms of rOBA, BAbip, or Clutch, but it is extremely hard for me to locate the player totals for batting average with runners in scoring position. Let me be honest: I f***ing hate these stats. They're a way for people to pretend like they sound smart, when really it is just wonky or nerdy. Obviously, some people have to make their livings by talking or writing about the Cubs, which I have never pretended to be able to do, and maybe that is because I don't care to spend a day or two studying what all of these different advanced metrics mean, because I like the way the game used to be played, with the pitchers batting, where no one could touch 100 MPH except Nolan Ryan. Just like I probably need to keep pace with A.I., so too must baseball writers and commentators keep pace with all of these stupid new stats that can make any terrible player sound great and any great player sound terrible. And I hate using A.I., but I think I have no choice because I can't find the specific link on baseballreference.com that I know must exist. How is anything more important than batting average w/ RISP?]
[I'm sorry but I need to complain. It would be super easy to tell you where players rank in terms of rOBA, BAbip, or Clutch, but it is extremely hard for me to locate the player totals for batting average with runners in scoring position. Let me be honest: I f***ing hate these stats. They're a way for people to pretend like they sound smart, when really it is just wonky or nerdy. Obviously, some people have to make their livings by talking or writing about the Cubs, which I have never pretended to be able to do, and maybe that is because I don't care to spend a day or two studying what all of these different advanced metrics mean, because I like the way the game used to be played, with the pitchers batting, where no one could touch 100 MPH except Nolan Ryan. Just like I probably need to keep pace with A.I., so too must baseball writers and commentators keep pace with all of these stupid new stats that can make any terrible player sound great and any great player sound terrible. And I hate using A.I., but I think I have no choice because I can't find the specific link on baseballreference.com that I know must exist. How is anything more important than batting average w/ RISP?]
I was wrong. Nico hit just .220 w/ RISP. And that right there is probably the primary reason his 2026 was weaker than 2025. In 2025, that number was .371.
In 2026, PCA led the team at .363 (no surprise), with the two catchers coming in at .333 (Amaya) and .328 (Kelly) for 2nd and 3rd. Pedro Ramirez then was at #4 (.313) and then we take a bit of a slide to Busch at #5 (.277), followed by a massive drop to Mo-Baller (now an Angel) at #6 (.229), Nico at #7, and then sadly, Dansby at #8 (.216), Conforto at #9 (.214; shocking!) and everybody's favorite Ian Happ at #10 (.192).
That was a tangent but felt it was an important one. I love Nico and still believe he is one of the best hitters on the team. From this one stat, it is clear there is one thing to focus on this offseason. His plate discipline has always been excellent, and he only struck out 9 more times this year (58 from 49 last year) and he had four more walks. Something else must have shifted, and had Nico replicated what may be his career year of 2025, yes we would have had the top spot in the wild card. And yes I think .371 is unfair to expect, but if he were just around .290, that might be good enough to make a meaningful difference. Of course, that also depends on everyone else's performance. And most of the rest of the players need to step it up.
That was a tangent but felt it was an important one. I love Nico and still believe he is one of the best hitters on the team. From this one stat, it is clear there is one thing to focus on this offseason. His plate discipline has always been excellent, and he only struck out 9 more times this year (58 from 49 last year) and he had four more walks. Something else must have shifted, and had Nico replicated what may be his career year of 2025, yes we would have had the top spot in the wild card. And yes I think .371 is unfair to expect, but if he were just around .290, that might be good enough to make a meaningful difference. Of course, that also depends on everyone else's performance. And most of the rest of the players need to step it up.
Carson Kelly: B
Pedro Ramirez: B
Let's slip the rookie in here. I was sad when Moises Ballesteros a.k.a. Mo-Baller was sent down to AAA after debuting to some promise in 2025 and showing up in early 2026 like the second coming of Schwarber. That is what I was feeling. Like Carson Kelly in 2025, in April, Mo-Baller performed outrageously well. When other teams "figured him out," he couldn't make the adjustment, and so he was demoted and later shipped off to the Angels for a relief pitcher that may have not been a terrible move, but time will tell. I'm not sure if he would have qualified as a rookie, and the rookie-of-the-year like April numbers couldn't have lasted, or even come close to matching Sal Stewart's historic entrance, either.
In any case, Pedro Ramirez (seen here after his first big-league HR) came up as the new rookie, and he established himself well. He put together solid at-bats, and he basically put up respectable numbers (in 80 games and 266 plate appearances, he had 63 hits, 6 HR, 32 RBI, 20 walks, 49 K's, for a .261 batting average and .723 OPS). It's not a big sample size, but broadly speaking, he performed better than those below in terms of expected contributions.
Tyrone Taylor: B+
There's not much to say here, except that in 18 games with the Cubs after being traded from the Mets, he accumulated a higher WAR than Kyle Tucker did all season long. Now, those are 0.9 and 0.7 respectively, but Taylor came in when it seemed clear that Ian Happ had lost whatever skill he had at hitting right-handed. They platooned in Left Field, and it worked reasonably well, though who knows because the post-trade deadline team performance as a whole was, again, schizophrenic.
In any case, in 80 plate appearances with the Cubs, Taylor hit .351 with 1 HR and 10 RBIs. He hit .359 w/RISP. It was a small sample size, but he was good. Possibly good enough to bring back, instead of Happ, but something about that would feel wrong. In any case, it would be interesting to see what he could do with the Cubs across an entire season. Right at the very end of the postseason, he only had 1 at-bat, but he hit 1000.00.
Miguel Amaya: C
In any case, in 80 plate appearances with the Cubs, Taylor hit .351 with 1 HR and 10 RBIs. He hit .359 w/RISP. It was a small sample size, but he was good. Possibly good enough to bring back, instead of Happ, but something about that would feel wrong. In any case, it would be interesting to see what he could do with the Cubs across an entire season. Right at the very end of the postseason, he only had 1 at-bat, but he hit 1000.00.
Miguel Amaya: C
Amaya had a couple injuries in 2026, but he played in 83 games--basically 3x as many games. In those additional 55 games, what did he accomplish?
-2 more HRs
-3 more RBIs
-19 more walks
-22 more runs
-3 more RBIs
-19 more walks
-22 more runs
-0.3 additional WAR.
Now maybe I should give Amaya a C-, but remember who was #2 w/RISP. He was reasonably clutch. He performed in clutch situations like the rest of the team should have.
We are underrating his 2025 season because he was injured, but how good could it have been, if he had continued on that track? He would have had 20 home runs and 125 RBIs, which would be insane. That's unrealistic. But if you put Amaya's 2025 and 2026 years together, you have the makings of a very solid backup catcher. He's eligible for arbitration. We know he won't set the world on fire, exactly, but he can also be streaky, and shown flashes of a greater player. He's entering his prime years and he's clearly a veteran now rather than a prospect, but I still believe Amaya has room to grow. If he could maintain something similar to his 2025 (abbreviated) performance, he's basically an All-Star. In terms of established pieces for 2027, like PCA, Bregman, Nico, and Swanson, the Kelly/Amaya combo is relatively solid, and there's no need to mess with it. The specific peculiarities of this offseason may require messing with things unnecessarily, but I have to make these recommendations on the basis of the 2027 season starting as expected on April 1 or thereabouts.
Michael Busch: C
I think I gave Michael Busch an A+ last year. That was probably a bit inflated. In any case, even though Busch was not the weakest player on the team, he may have been the biggest disappointment. Very famously in 2025, Busch was not allowed to hit left-handed pitching. If the other team was starting a lefty, he would be on the bench, and maybe come in later in the game against a righty. It was frustrating, because his alternate was mostly Justin Turner, who did not produce much more than Busch must have been able to do.
2025 Busch: .261, 34 HR, 90 RBIs, .866 OPS
2026 Busch: .242, 20 HR, 77 RBIs, .745 OPS
I overrated him with an A+ (weighting $ value heavily), but I said he was good enough for a World Series contender, and I think that was fair to say in 2025. Over the offseason, or at the beginning of this season, Counsell famously acknowledged that Busch would start hitting against lefties this year. He still played in 155 games last year despite that platoon situation, and he played in just 5 more games this year, with 118 additional plate appearances.
2026 Busch: .242, 20 HR, 77 RBIs, .745 OPS
I overrated him with an A+ (weighting $ value heavily), but I said he was good enough for a World Series contender, and I think that was fair to say in 2025. Over the offseason, or at the beginning of this season, Counsell famously acknowledged that Busch would start hitting against lefties this year. He still played in 155 games last year despite that platoon situation, and he played in just 5 more games this year, with 118 additional plate appearances.
He took a step back in most areas. He started off the season on a terrible 0 for 30 slump, and that was a bad omen. He did briefly come back to put up more respectable numbers, only to take a step back again, and finally end the season on something of a middling note, though we were all hoping he would be turning it on as the postseason became a reality. And then he just didn't.
He hit .296 in the playoffs last year, 8 hits in 31 plate appearances, and 4 home runs. Only 4 RBIs. They were all solo homers. But they were memorable. Milwaukee was afraid of Busch hitting yet another leadoff homerun. He was a semi-controversial leadoff hitter, and I think all are settled on PCA there for the indefinite future, but he clearly had more success once he settled in there. This year, he would often be in the middle of the lineup, maybe 5th. (And to close the circle, this year he hit .000 in the postseason, 0 for 5, but did have 2 walks at least.)
I sort of wanted the Polar Bear, and I thought it would be very intimidating to have both him and Busch at 1st base or as a DH option alternatively. In the end, I thought money would be better spent on Dylan Cease, or as it ended up being, Alex Bregman. (Can you imagine the Pete & Pete memes we could have had? Two guys with 40+ HRs would scare any team.) I felt we would be OK but now I think some decision may be made about Busch. He's under arbitration and not a free agent until 2030, and I think it probably makes sense to keep him and maybe platoon him again. He did improve one part of his game this year (walks--they went from 56 to 92, and his OBP went from .343 to .352. That's not terrible, and clearly Busch had it once, and I think he can rediscover what made him a threat at the plate. His defense is also quite good. I'm not as 100% confident in him as those above, but think he will do better in 2027.
Ian Happ: C-
This photo was taken from an article that was pointing out that Ian Happ had a real chance to be #10 on the all-time Cubs home run leader list. He finished the season at #11, with 197 total, 1 behind Hank Sauer. I don't think he particularly cared very much about that accolade, but it shows how long he has been here, and his connection to the previous "core." Every year, I point out that Ian Happ was very streaky, and had a roller coaster season, and still ended with stats that are extremely consistent year-after-year. He was only an All-Star once, but at the end of the year, he would put up borderline All-Star numbers, and he could be counted on for Gold Glove defense. Coupled with his elder statesman status (despite being just 32 as of August), though some "loved to hate" Happ because he is also something of a strikeout king--leading the team in strikeouts with 189 (PCA had 187, and of course Schwarber is the ultimate strikeout king--the leaders this year were Schwarber in the NL with 220 and Colson Montgomery in the AL with 227--Happ was 7th in MLB), on balance, he stays healthy, finishes seasons with above-average numbers, and justifies his status as a fixture in the outfield.
Now unfortunately, he is no longer under contract, and while some players really turn it on in contract years and show the world what they really have, this was probably Happ's worst season in the MLB yet, overall.
He hit 24 HR, which isn't bad, and he started off the season on a pretty strong note. From how his fielding numbers look, his 4th consecutive Gold Glove in Left Field appears to be a fait accompli. While the team definitely had a problem w/ RISP, they hid that defect with home runs. Happ was perhaps the apotheosis of that trend (and PCA the opposite, the exception).
As mentioned with Seiya, the only available upgrade is Arozarena, and I think if you ask most Cubs fans, would you rather have Arozarena and say, Michael King (for the sake of argument--I don't think he'll leave San Diego now), or Happ and Skubal, it's obvious who would be preferred. That's if money is no object and query whether Happ will be a relative bargain over Arozarena. In any case, if you saw or heard Happ's interview after the last game--or if you saw Dansby's, where he was "visibly emotional" (i.e. crying)--a reunion does not appear likely. If Happ does not return, he will symbolize a strange era of occasional dominance and pseudo-competitiveness--he's the streakiest player on the team, maybe ever, and it's one of the streakiest decade-long stretches in franchise history (with the 2022 rebuild year as the only outlier).
Happ played in 156 games--2 behind his career-high. He had 68 RBIs, which matched his exact total from his rookie season, when he played in 115 games (the 2017 team remained a powerhouse, to be fair, and Happ was the new kid on the block, showing promise for homegrown developments, with Nico and Amaya and Justin Steele waiting in the wings). I'm not going to do a player-by-player comp of the 2026 and 2017 teams, except to say, if you look at the top 3 players, off top of head--it's easy for 2026, but in 2017, it's probably KB, Javy and Rizzo--offensively, 2026 is probably the stronger offense (2017 team had very strong pitching, still)--so it cuts both ways.
He's also the strikeout king, and 189 is now his career high. His batting average, at .218, is his career low, and 2021 came closest at .224. Happ famously (and admirably) sucked it up and spent a lot of time in AAA in 2019 and 2020, after a decent rookie season in 2017 and weaker 2018 (his lowest WAR season, at 0.9; this year's 2.9 WAR is his lowest since 2021).
He's also the strikeout king, and 189 is now his career high. His batting average, at .218, is his career low, and 2021 came closest at .224. Happ famously (and admirably) sucked it up and spent a lot of time in AAA in 2019 and 2020, after a decent rookie season in 2017 and weaker 2018 (his lowest WAR season, at 0.9; this year's 2.9 WAR is his lowest since 2021).
It's also his career-worst OBP and OPS. He did score 89 runs, which fell in line with "consistent Happ," and it was his career-high for HPB but that is really pretty meaningless. I love Happ because he symbolizes the frustration inherent in being a Cubs fan. In that way, he is something of an "anti-Mr. Cub," but despite his various failings, he was a leader of these teams, and his positive influence is not reflected on paper. I have no idea what will happen, but I'd like to believe Happ will have a resurgent second act in Pittsburgh or Cincinnati, and only kill us when we visit.
Dansby Swanson: D+
Dansby Swanson: D+
If we were going by WAR, Happ would have been featured 5th on this, and Dansby ahead of him. And his numbers are very close to Happ's. He struck out less, but he didn't walk as much. He had a couple injuries (more notably at the end of the season) and only played in 126 games, his lowest total since his rookie season of 2016 (he played in 100% of the 60 games in 2020).
The good? He had 69 RBIs--not his career-high as a Cub (that would be 80 in 2023)--technically his second lowest total, only 66 in in 2024 is lower--but that year, he played in 23 more games. His defense, of course, was stellar, and he will probably win a Gold Glove.
I love Dansby and I have his jersey but it was probably his weakest year yet. The photo selected above has stats on it for a reason, because Swanson did weirdly change for a couple weeks. Famously, with the World Cup in full swing, and Norway playing a game in New York, many Norwegians took the opportunity to attend the Cubs vs. Mets doubleheader. He had 11 RBIs and 2 home runs in those two games, but clearly, in the 8 other games surrounding that, he added more 15 RBIs. The Norwegians unlocked super-powered Dansby. For a brief moment, his season RBI total was higher than Kyle Schwarber's.
Dansby has this in him. It just needs to be unlocked again. He's just like Happ in that he was streaky, and his performance w/RISP was atrocious. We have him for 3 more years. Some shout "DFA," but that would be incredibly irrational and short-sighted, penny rich/dollar dumb. (I don't think he will be like KB after becoming a father--it's true he was terrible except for that 10 game stretch--but we needed him at the end of the season when he was injured, and that injury is one of the other factors that led to us losing the top wild card spot.) I prefer the Nico-Dansby tandem to any other possible double-play combination in the MLB. Dansby, however, will need to bring the batting average up at least into the .240s (which sadly looks about career-average for him) to avoid further complaints in 2027.
Michael Conforto: C+
I love Dansby and I have his jersey but it was probably his weakest year yet. The photo selected above has stats on it for a reason, because Swanson did weirdly change for a couple weeks. Famously, with the World Cup in full swing, and Norway playing a game in New York, many Norwegians took the opportunity to attend the Cubs vs. Mets doubleheader. He had 11 RBIs and 2 home runs in those two games, but clearly, in the 8 other games surrounding that, he added more 15 RBIs. The Norwegians unlocked super-powered Dansby. For a brief moment, his season RBI total was higher than Kyle Schwarber's.
Dansby has this in him. It just needs to be unlocked again. He's just like Happ in that he was streaky, and his performance w/RISP was atrocious. We have him for 3 more years. Some shout "DFA," but that would be incredibly irrational and short-sighted, penny rich/dollar dumb. (I don't think he will be like KB after becoming a father--it's true he was terrible except for that 10 game stretch--but we needed him at the end of the season when he was injured, and that injury is one of the other factors that led to us losing the top wild card spot.) I prefer the Nico-Dansby tandem to any other possible double-play combination in the MLB. Dansby, however, will need to bring the batting average up at least into the .240s (which sadly looks about career-average for him) to avoid further complaints in 2027.
Michael Conforto: C+
Conforto was one of the few offensive additions to this team, and he had no obvious position. He effectively became a utility man and platoon guy. In these "rankings," his grade is higher than where he falls in the list, but that is because I am shocked by his average w/RISP (.214). Because to me, it felt like he was one of the best clutch hitters on this team. But maybe that was an illusion and was only true in the 1st half of the season.
I can't say much about him, honestly. If you watched as many games this year as I did, you know that Conforto led the MLB in pinch-hit home runs (tied with Derek Hill of the White Sox at 4). He was a guy you felt reasonably comfortable with at the plate in a tight, tense late-game situation. Perhaps the shine wore off in the 2nd half a bit, I'm not sure. In my opinion, he put up respectable numbers. I'm leaving out another "stats photo" that compared his season WAR with Kyle Tucker's on the Dodgers this year--which was equal at 0.7--so it's accurate to say, we got much better bang for our buck than the Dodgers did.
He was here on a 1 year deal. I wouldn't be opposed to another one. I can't tell for sure if there's a chance of that happening, but I would venture a guess that it is slim. Regardless, I look at Conforto fondly. Even though the stats weirdly do not look very good, I know, you know, we all know, this team had a situational hitting problem, and Conforto was not as bad at that as it somehow appears.
***
That about does it for the position players, though I'm leaving out Matt Shaw (only 77 games) and Kevin Alcantara (only 24 games). They were fine, not terrible, and I think both may be back in 2027, and both may also be bargaining chips or back-up options. But we need to talk about the pitching now, so take a deep breath.
He was here on a 1 year deal. I wouldn't be opposed to another one. I can't tell for sure if there's a chance of that happening, but I would venture a guess that it is slim. Regardless, I look at Conforto fondly. Even though the stats weirdly do not look very good, I know, you know, we all know, this team had a situational hitting problem, and Conforto was not as bad at that as it somehow appears.
***
That about does it for the position players, though I'm leaving out Matt Shaw (only 77 games) and Kevin Alcantara (only 24 games). They were fine, not terrible, and I think both may be back in 2027, and both may also be bargaining chips or back-up options. But we need to talk about the pitching now, so take a deep breath.
***
First, we are going to leave out Cade Horton and Justin Steele. Horton started 2 games and threw 7.1 innings. We expected he might be the Ace of this staff this year. It was a horrible moment in that second start, when he stepped off the mound in the 1st or 2nd inning, and it seemed everyone knew we were f***ed, that a deep postseason run was now seriously compromised. He was out all year, and some people think he will be out for a good portion of 2027 too, which feels awful.
Steele was slated to potentially come back this year, but also had a setback, and there was even talk of him pulling a "pseudo-Schwarber" and returning for playoffs, but he did not look strong enough for that apparently.
Steele was slated to potentially come back this year, but also had a setback, and there was even talk of him pulling a "pseudo-Schwarber" and returning for playoffs, but he did not look strong enough for that apparently.
We had to make do, and Jed Hoyer responded reasonably well to those needs at the trade deadline, bringing in David Peterson, Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes and Ryan Zeferjahn to try and save the team. While all four of them had successes and struggles, we will have Zeferjahn for two more seasons, and most fans I think would keep Clay Holmes, if we can. I am not sure at all how to rank these pitchers. Maybe we do it by Innings Pitched, since the whole philosophy became "we need to get 27 outs" and eschewed traditional middle relief-setup man-closer roles.
***
Shota Imanaga: B-
I use a non-baseball photo of Shota to illustrate one thing I noticed that I didn't hear anyone else mention. After his haircut, Shota was the Shota we had in 2024, the Shota we loved and the Shota we deserved. He was not as bad as he was in 2025, and he wasn't always bad in 2025. Overall he was better in 2026 than 2025, but not as good as 2024, but why was this season not as good as 2024?
It's interesting because you have 3 pretty similar sample sizes (29 starts, 25 starts, and 32 starts). But it's clear, he was great in 2024, because he went 15-3, 2.91 ERA with 174 Ks. He also gave up 27 HRs. Compare that to last year's 9-8 record with 3.73 ERA with 117 Ks and you can see the difference. He also gave up 4 more HRs in 4 fewer starts. And I can see why this year is something of a mix of the two: 11-10, 3.77 ERA with 174 Ks again....and 35 HRs surrendered.
It's interesting because you have 3 pretty similar sample sizes (29 starts, 25 starts, and 32 starts). But it's clear, he was great in 2024, because he went 15-3, 2.91 ERA with 174 Ks. He also gave up 27 HRs. Compare that to last year's 9-8 record with 3.73 ERA with 117 Ks and you can see the difference. He also gave up 4 more HRs in 4 fewer starts. And I can see why this year is something of a mix of the two: 11-10, 3.77 ERA with 174 Ks again....and 35 HRs surrendered.
His walk totals are fairly comparable (28-26-37). That's not his problem. He clearly has one problem.
I'll just say, after his haircut, looking at his last 5 performances in 2026, he went 4-1 in 24 innings (only threw 1 inning in the last game of the season). He did pitch the game in Miami that some believe spelled doom for losing the top wild card spot (pitching very well in a game the Cubs lost in extra innings). And OK really only 9/4/26 was an "elite" performance, but the other starts were very good, and there were only 2 home runs given up. Extrapolating that for 174 innings (which he also threw in 2024), he would have only given up 15 home runs. I don't think Shota could pitch a whole season and only give up that many, but if he could, I don't think anybody would say he shouldn't be on the team. He'd be an asset to any team in the MLB if he controlled the Home Run Problem. I have no idea what will happen in 2027 but a reunion also feels unlikely. I think he will be fondly remembered here, and I think if somehow they got him back on a low-risk "prove-it" offer, most fans would give the benefit of the doubt, given that our entire staff will remain in a decimated state. If he showed he could control the home runs, he would be a very solid fixture in the rotation. I prefer to believe the haircut changed him and that he is still capable of greatness.
I'll just say, after his haircut, looking at his last 5 performances in 2026, he went 4-1 in 24 innings (only threw 1 inning in the last game of the season). He did pitch the game in Miami that some believe spelled doom for losing the top wild card spot (pitching very well in a game the Cubs lost in extra innings). And OK really only 9/4/26 was an "elite" performance, but the other starts were very good, and there were only 2 home runs given up. Extrapolating that for 174 innings (which he also threw in 2024), he would have only given up 15 home runs. I don't think Shota could pitch a whole season and only give up that many, but if he could, I don't think anybody would say he shouldn't be on the team. He'd be an asset to any team in the MLB if he controlled the Home Run Problem. I have no idea what will happen in 2027 but a reunion also feels unlikely. I think he will be fondly remembered here, and I think if somehow they got him back on a low-risk "prove-it" offer, most fans would give the benefit of the doubt, given that our entire staff will remain in a decimated state. If he showed he could control the home runs, he would be a very solid fixture in the rotation. I prefer to believe the haircut changed him and that he is still capable of greatness.
Colin Rea: B
His ERA slipped a bit, from 3.95 to 4.34, but for what he was, for what we expected from him, he delivered. He's not under contract for 2027 and he's 36. We're going to have to totally overhaul this pitching staff but Rea has proven extremely valuable over the past two seasons. I would recommend signing him to another 1 or 2-year deal, so long as it is team-friendly. I would keep both him and Assad on this team. We will hopefully have a much better pitching situation in 2026. But as we learned this year in spades, s*** happens. It happened bad and it's remarkable we got as far as we did and Rea played a bigger part in this salvaging effort than anyone else, on a purely quantitative level. He didn't perform quite at the all-star-like level of 2025, but did well enough to justify a small extension, as "boring" as that may be for those that want to clean house.
Matthew Boyd: B
Matthew Boyd is not the ace the Cubs wanted or deserved, but for the past two seasons, he's basically been the ace we got. Really he is not that much better than Shota overall, but he only gave up 15 home runs. Like Rea, he was also reliable, and took a slight step back, and both will be 36 in February. He was injured a bit more (notably, from playing with his kids once) and pitched almost 60 less innings. For the most part, he performed well. He sometimes had trouble with the "big inning," but when this was avoided, more often than not, he would pitch 6 or 7 innings and give up maybe 1 or 2 runs, maybe 3 or 4 if the Cubs were scoring too. He kept the team in most games. There's a mutual option for 2027 and like Rea, I'd say why not, we need all the backup we can get.
Javier Assad: B
Assad is more than just a number and yet for the amount he was paid he probably deserves an A-, but let's not go crazy or anything. His WAR was 1.1. Last year, it was 0.4 (he pitched in 20 less games and threw about 1/3 the amount of innings--the numbers are otherwise consistent). He was a little bit worse than last year in terms of giving up home runs (from 3 to 16--otherwise the numbers are all pretty roughly triple). He wasn't always perfect but more often than not--as he has proven over the past several years--he got it done. I do not think you are getting Javier Assad for less than $2 MM this year, but I'd say he's worth at least $2.5 MM and probably a bit more
David Peterson: B+
Overall, David Peterson's WAR for 2026 is -0.1. As we wade ever so slightly into the pitchers by innings pitched, we will begin to see where the cracks appeared on this team. Really, Peterson's season with the Mets was terrible (-1.0) and his time with the Cubs was fairly good (and I would say great at times) with a corresponding 0.9 WAR in the second half of the season (Peterson pitched in 16 games for both the Mets and the Cubs, with 68 and 80 IP respectively). There's a lot of talk about blowing up this pitching staff and who we can let go and who we should try to keep and who we have to keep and some say that Clay Holmes is the guy you should really try to keep. Unless the Cubs bring in Tarik Skubal and two other frontline starters, I think we should absolutely try to keep both David Peterson and Clay Holmes. Keep the former Mets together. They both did fairly well here. Peterson had been an All-Star more recently in 2025, and had a very strong 2024 (only 47 less innings pitched than the year he got recognized). Before that, going back to his debut in 2020, he was an inconsistent pitcher--good rookie year, weak sophomore year, good third year, weak fourth year, great fifth year, all-star sixth year, and tale-of-two-teams seventh year.
He's 31 and he'll be 32 in September 2027. He got paid roughly $8 MM this year and is projected to be around $10 MM on this website I found spotrac.com (though I feel it is lowballing their market value). If you can get David Peterson for 1 year at $10 MM, I think you take it. I'd feel comfortable giving him 3 years and $30 MM even. If not even more. I'm not sure you buy in that deep on a guy you only had for half a season, but 2 years/$20 MM would feel OK to me. Like Clay Holmes (and Kyle Hendricks before them), Peterson is a ground ball pitcher that benefits not only from the pitching atmosphere of Wrigley Field but also the stellar defense around him on the infield (and an outfield of Gold Glove finalists beyond them).
Yes, he had a couple really bad performances (9/2/26 versus MIL at Wrigley; 7/3/26 versus STL at Wrigley; yikes). But I think if you ask most fans how they think he did, nobody is going to say he was the problem. Beyond those 2 bad days, he gave up 3 runs one other day, gave up 2 runs on 4 days, gave up 1 run on 6 days, and gave up 0 runs on 3 days. Most of those days, he pitched 5 or 6 innings. That's valuable. 13 out of 16 appearances, he gave up 2 runs or less. That is good enough for a 4th or 5th starter. He proved his versatility as an effective reliever in a couple appearances out of the bullpen as well, which was sorely needed.
He was one of the few band-aids that made a meaningful difference in the right direction. He should be recognized for that. Apart from his rough first half with the Mets (whose defense was particularly abhorrent), he's had three very solid seasons in a row. I feel like if he replicated his Cubs stats across both halves, he pitched at an all-star level. Much better than the Cubs biggest offseason move, who also had a strong 2025.
Edward Cabrera: D
This photo was taken on June 23, 2026. I believe Cabrera was injured on the play, and that was the story of the season, and the story of his signing. We knew the risks going in. Cabrera did actually start the season fairly normally, and pitched on regular basis until this game. He would have 4-5 starts per month.
He pitched in just 4 more games for the duration of the season. The first game back, 8/16/26, was awful, and he was re-injured. He returned for 3 performances in September out of the bullpen, one of which was OK. In rehab starts just before, he had hit 100 MPH on the radar gun, and we were sorely in need of help out of the bullpen as the once-invincible Jacob Webb finally showed signs of overuse by Counsell. He didn't pitch in the postseason.
We knew the risks because Cabrera had never pitched more than 137 innings in a season, and that was last year. Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins ace, had been on the Cubs radar in 2024 but they did not pull the trigger. That ended up being the right move because Cabrera had a much better 2025 as the #2. Unfortunately, this year Alcantara was significantly better. OK, he gave up more hits than any other pitcher in baseball (204) but he also had the highest IP in the MLB (214--a marvel in 2026). He went 13-11 with a 3.87 ERA and that included a shutout. (Alcantara has more or less led the league in complete games when playing mostly full seasons, and his 2022 performance was outstanding.)
I guess Cabrera was the "easier get," but that included trading Owen Caissie. Caissie's WAR was -0.2, so Miami did not fare much better in this trade, but Cabrera's was -1.4. His season was marred by injury, yes, and his first 2 starts were great. If you read my write-up from last year, I was very bullish on our pitching staff, and it only took about 2 starts for everything to fall apart. Oddly, Cabrera didn't go down til later, but in every single other performance (except that penultimate one for 1 inning on 9/20/26) he gave up runs--usually 2 or 3, 4 or 5, 7 or 8--only 1 once.
We still got it done sometimes when he gave up 3 or 4 runs, because we had a high-powered offense, but it was not easy. We have Cabrera for 2 more seasons. He's going to get another shot to make the rotation. He's going to be part of the team somehow. And we have to hope his 2027 will be more like his 2025, because 2026 is the low point of his career. Clearly, the man has talent, and if that is unlocked, he will play a key role in overcoming the Brewers, who just proved they really were the best team in baseball. Good luck to the Rays.
Jameson Taillon: D+
Not much to say about Taillon, except that when he was DFA'd, it was shocking. I think he was in the last year of his contract. In any case, he fared much better in his 3 starts in Toronto later. And we talk about Shota's Home Run Problem but Taillon had a bigger Home Run Problem. He gave up 25 of them in 15 appearances. He had been fairly consistent over the past few seasons (grade last year: A-), and he was actually a great guy. It made me sad to see him go. And it was shocking, because we really did not have any good options besides him. This was, however, when Jed stepped things up and made the deal for David Peterson. Ultimately it felt like the right decision, but I personally hope Taillon plays out his career in Canada and ends on as high a note as he deserves.
Ben Brown: A
It's fair to say Ben Brown was the best pitcher on the Cubs in 2026. He appeared 20 times and started 8 games and threw 68 innings. He went 4-2 with a 1.85 ERA and recorded 65 Ks. His K/9 rate was actually lower 1.6 lower than last year and 1.8 lower than his rookie year. He's a "swing-and-miss" guy, and we needed more like him. The difference is, this was Brown's best year. He's only 26. He has some kind of neck injury which may be somewhat unpredictable and potentially serious. Everyone is praying that this is somehow brought under control, because Brown truly stepped up when the chips were way down for this team. He basically carried the team through April (as a reliever) and May (as a starter). In his worst outing, he gave up 3 runs--once. A few weeks before the All-Star break, this team had no All-Stars, except for Brown, who was injured by that point (and wouldn't pitch again after 6/19/26). PCA turned it on shortly thereafter and represented the team well. Regardless, Brown proved just how good he could be this year, and if he can continue to perform at this level, and avoid injury, he will be one of the most valuable members of the pitching staff--probably the most valuable.
Jacob Webb: B+
Oddly enough, looking at his last 5 games, he only gave up 2 runs in his final outing. However, the Cubs ended up losing 4 of those 5 games. There were many failures this season, but none stung more than the slide at the very end, for the final 1 1/2 months of the season--when actually, at stretches, they were very good--but still fell from 3 games behind the Brewers to finish 14 games behind the Brewers.
He finally showed signs of wear on August 22, 2026, and the inability to rely on him as we did before cost us several games, as the bullpen correspondingly failed. But from June 24th to August 22nd, Jacob Webb gave up this many runs: 0.
His ERA at that point was 2.21 and he finished at a respectable 3.36, though you probably want your "shut down guy" to be under 3 (and if you want to compete in the World Series, under 2).
He actually pitched quite similarly to 2025 in Texas and 2024 in Baltimore. And I don't think he should go to his 4th team in 4 years. Webb took the late season struggles seriously, and he's a very strong competitor. He has a team option on free agency this winter, and even though he became a problem, you absolutely cannot underrate what he did for this team in 2026. I do not think he should be the closer, but I think he could be an extremely effective 7th or 8th inning guy. He may command a slightly higher salary, but it should be reasonable enough, and a risk worth taking.
Ryan Rolison: B+
Rollipop is not an official nickname in any sense, but I am going with it (credit to CHGO Cubs Podcast, which established itself as the definitive one this year). And even though it really was kind of PCA (whenever I go to a game at Wrigley since 2025, my preferred seat is as close to the front of the bleachers in left-center as possible), we should be allowed one position player and one pitcher and so Ryan Rolison is my 'other' favorite player of the year. This may be the most boring favorite player of the year yet (and I am not sure I have identified this player each year, but surely for at least half of the years). In short, while Jacob Webb got all the praise for stepping up to the moment and carrying the team through the dangerous late innings over a constantly perilous season, Rolison did just as well, and got probably half of the credit.
He may have done better, because he did not crumble the same way in September. He probably deserves an A- for that, but Webb truly was excellent for a longer stretch. In any case, Rollipop's season numbers look like this: 9-2 with an ERA of 𝝅. You cannot often say that about pitchers and you must when you have the opportunity.
So that's 0.22 lower than Webb's. It's true Webb made 8 more appearances, but he only pitched 4 more innings. Rolison walked 28 batters in 63 innings, and while every pitcher should care a lot about walks, relief pitchers should especially. The same goes for home runs. Webb walked 25, and Rolison walked 28. Webb gave up 10, and Rolison gave up 6. Rolison gave up 1 run in the month of June and his ERA "peaked" at 1.93. He gave up 3 runs exactly once.
I don't think I need to say any more. It's just his 2nd year in the MLB. He's 28. He spent 5 years in the Colorado Rockies farm system before turning in a debut season performance of 1-0 with a 7.02 ERA, giving up 11 home runs in 42 innings. He had a Home Run Problem, and he got it under control.
Near the end of the season, no one knew who could be the closer, and no one proposed it be Rolison. But I did. I'm not saying he should be the closer next year, and as many often acknowledge, you can't count on relief pitchers to replicate performances year-after-year. There are just way too many factors in play in each unique appearance that only closers really can establish a consistent resume (and that is a very hard thing to do, increasingly as time as gone on). A brief Google search of "top closers in last 5 years" brings up Emmanuel Clase, Josh Hader, Edwin Diaz, Rasiel Iglesias, and their old-man, Kenley Jansen. The Cubs should have made a stronger push for Hader this year, and I'd add Mason Miller to that list of 5. Jansen shut down the Cubs notably in one game this year. I remember watching a face-off between him and Alex Bregman that felt like an epic, classic moment. He might be available. If we can't land any closer, I'd take a flyer on him. Yeah he's 39, but he's the active saves leader, and you can't say he doesn't know how to pitch in the postseason. Of course, we wanted soon-to-be 39 Aroldis Chapman too--and that might have happened, even, if the Red Sox hadn't gone on the tear they did. But most I think, still consider Chapman scarier than Jansen, and he can certainly throw harder.
But don't let go of Rollipop. He quietly established himself as one of the most successful pitchers on the team, and importantly, he never got injured.
Kevin Gausman: C+
Gausman's a bit of a journeyman, having played for Baltimore, Atlanta, Cincinnati, and San Francisco. He settled in with Toronto in 2022, and established an excellent track record over 4 seasons. His 2026 was not quite as strong, but Gausman had switched teams at the trade deadline twice before in his career, and the Cubs needed a rental, badly. He was seen as a reliable veteran, and had actually been on the Cubs radar since Theo and Jed tried to bring him into the fold in 2016. It felt particularly auspicious, when we brought in Gausman, Holmes and Zeferjahn, like we were on the verge of a 10-year redux.
Of course, that didn't happen, and it's easy to break down Gausman's performances, since he started in exactly 9 games for the team. 3 of those starts were excellent, the types of performances that make one think, this man should get the ball in Game 1. However, 2 or 3 of those were atrocious (they won the game where he gave up 5 runs, killing the reds 17-5). The remaining three were OK. He was serviceable in his role. He looked amazing, and he looked terrible, and was sort of all over the place--but he's what they call a workhorse, and at 50 IP in 9 starts, he was basically good for 5 "probably" solid innings. I don't expect him to be back, and believe the Blue Jays would like him to play out his career there, as he established his home there. Even if his time was not an unqualified success, I don't think anyone groaned when it was his turn to pitch, and we appreciate his contributions over those few excellent performances.
***
We have about 8 pitchers to go, and I question how interesting these will be for readers, but they're basically all bullpen guys, and it's important to really analyze where and when things went horribly wrong.
***
Caleb Thielbar: C
We've never done a deeper dive on Thielbar, so let's make a few things clear: (1) he has never been a starting pitcher; (2) he had an excellent rookie season in 2013 at age 26, and a solid 2014; (3) something happened in 2015, I'm assuming an injury, as he only pitched in 6 games, and then something else happened; (4) he did not play in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 in the MLB, and it appears he was in the minors the whole time; (5) he returned to the MLB in 2020 and turned in very solid performances in 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023; (6) he hit a major decline in 2024 at age 37--and to this point, he had been a lifelong Minnesota Twin; (7) the Cubs picked him up as a reclamation project in 2025, and they chose wisely--it might have been his single best season, due to the competitive nature of the games--only 2013 and 2021 were comparably good; (8) he's never made more than $3.25 MM in a single season.
Enter 2026. Thielbar is 39. Along with Drew Pomeranz (A-) and Brad Keller (A), Thielbar (A-), he anchored the bullpen in 2025. They were all outstanding. They are another reason we did better in 2025 than 2026. We lost Keller (he wanted too much, and he ended up regressing this year, which is not surprising for any relief pitcher) and we lost Pomeranz--until he got DFA'd and we got him back (and then realized why he was DFA'd).
Enter 2026. Thielbar is 39. Along with Drew Pomeranz (A-) and Brad Keller (A), Thielbar (A-), he anchored the bullpen in 2025. They were all outstanding. They are another reason we did better in 2025 than 2026. We lost Keller (he wanted too much, and he ended up regressing this year, which is not surprising for any relief pitcher) and we lost Pomeranz--until he got DFA'd and we got him back (and then realized why he was DFA'd).
Thielbar was the sole survivor. He got paid $2.75 MM in 2025, and they signed him to another deal at age 38 (he turned 39 before the 2026 season started). Somehow, in what must be the twilight of his career, he signed a 2-year contract that paid him $4 MM this year, and would pay him $6 MM in 2027 (or a $500,000 buyout in the alternative).
Thielbar did not do as well in 2026 and that is not a huge surprise. He pitched 8 less innings, and his ERA ballooned from 2.64 to 5.40. That being said, it's hard to see where he went wrong. His K/9 rate actually went up to 10.8 (the 2nd highest in his career). He walked a few more guys and gave up a few more hits, but not egregiously more. However, we found the culprit: home runs allowed. He gave up 5 in 2025, and that number went up to 11 in 2026. So yes, he is yet another pitcher with a Home Run Problem.
He was inconsistent. 50% of the time, he was Caleb Deal-bar, and looked like he did last year, and he provided valuable support with Webb and Rolison. The other 50% of the time, he was as bad as any of the other problematic pitchers. Note however, he gave up 4 runs in his worst performance--that was against the Dodgers on 8/5/26--and we ended up winning the game anyways. But when you fixate on the individual line items, sometimes you miss the forest for the trees, so to speak.
He was inconsistent. 50% of the time, he was Caleb Deal-bar, and looked like he did last year, and he provided valuable support with Webb and Rolison. The other 50% of the time, he was as bad as any of the other problematic pitchers. Note however, he gave up 4 runs in his worst performance--that was against the Dodgers on 8/5/26--and we ended up winning the game anyways. But when you fixate on the individual line items, sometimes you miss the forest for the trees, so to speak.
I don't expect the Cubs to pay $6 MM to Thielbar in his Age 40 Season. Much as I love 40-year-old players for selfish reasons, his 2026 was not his 2025, and it seems totally realistic to get a great reliever for $5.5 MM. Credit to Thielbar's agent, and credit to him for an interesting MLB career in the midwest that was on the whole, largely good (apart from those odd years in AA and AAA in his late 20's and early 30's). He was positively heroic in 2025, and it's just a shame we couldn't do better and get him the ring. And it's a shame he didn't pitch in the postseason in 2026, because he gave up 0 runs in 3.2 innings last year. He did well for himself in the MLB, and performing the way he did at his age is a gift to every player in their late 30s that still believes they have something to contribute.
Clay Holmes: C+
Clay "no-relation-to-Elizabeth" Holmes is an odd replica of David Peterson, in that they both pitched exactly the same number of games for the Cubs and the Mets in 2026 (16 for Peterson, 9 for Holmes). The difference however, is that Holmes was much better on the Mets than the Cubs, the reverse situation from Peterson.
All of those were starts for both. It was often stated that Holmes was once the closer for the New York Yankees, and that he was actually a World Series closer for them. That was just 2 years ago in 2024, and he did not actually record any saves--but he did go 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA across 12 innings. And he was an All-Star in both 2022 and 2024. The Mets snatched him up in 2025 (don't forget how the Mets have spent the past few years, and how that has worked out for them) and he performed admirably, converting to a starting pitcher, starting 31 games and going 12-8 with a 3.53 ERA in 165 innings pitched. He did give up 150 hits, but only 14 home runs. So it made sense that the Mets wouldn't change things up, and he actually did rather well for them in 2026, going 4-4 with a 2.39 ERA across 52 innings. He was, however, injured at the end, and traded to the Cubs as an injured player. But he was coming back soon, they said.
His first start back, I remember, was on my niece's 3rd birthday party, and we watched the game at times, and they lost--and they had been on a big winning streak, and were in that phase of nearly catching the Brewers. That was against the Royals on 8/8/26, and it was right before the wheels began to come off. The Cubs had just won 5 in a row, including a sweep of the Dodgers. They lost this one but they bounced back to win their next 3--and then things got bad. They managed to win the series against the White Sox, but proceeded to lose the next 3 versus Seattle, Arizona and Cincinnati.
His first start back, I remember, was on my niece's 3rd birthday party, and we watched the game at times, and they lost--and they had been on a big winning streak, and were in that phase of nearly catching the Brewers. That was against the Royals on 8/8/26, and it was right before the wheels began to come off. The Cubs had just won 5 in a row, including a sweep of the Dodgers. They lost this one but they bounced back to win their next 3--and then things got bad. They managed to win the series against the White Sox, but proceeded to lose the next 3 versus Seattle, Arizona and Cincinnati.
By that point, we had been looking forward to those 7 games against the Brewers, and we had fallen far enough back that even if we won all 7, we wouldn't catch them. We split the first series 2-2 in Chicago and we were swept 3 games in Milwaukee. Sandwiched between those MIL games was the MIA series---which the Cubs actually won--but the one game they lost spelled the beginning of the end for their top wild card spot holding.
I go into all these team results because that's the milieu in which Holmes was working, and while his Cubs debut was not great at all, he bounced back. Briefly. His next 4 starts were pretty solid, even though the team ended up losing 2 of those games. His 2nd start for the team was excellent, only giving up 1 hit in 6.2 innings. In his 4th start, he gave up just 2 hits in 7 innings.
Starts 5-8? All bad. Two of them (9/6 and 9/18), atrocious. So why does everyone say we need to keep this guy, and not even put David Peterson in the same sentence? I don't get it.
Still, I will trust the masses on this. He has a $12 MM player option for 2027. It's up to him, I guess, but I would take the money if I were him, and I would not feel horrible about keeping him despite some of those atrocious performances. I don't feel great blindly trusting everyone, but believe he does get ground balls, and believe he also had a few starts that were actually excellent, and I like to think optimistically about pitchers. He wasn't great at the end of the season, but most still questioned why he did not pitch at all in the postseason. He'll turn 34 right around Opening Day in 2027, and because our rotation remains in a state of paralysis, it's rational to ask him to stay part of it.
Trent Thornton: B
Trent Thornton's Cubs debut on May 6, 2026 was iconic. He came into the game in the top of the 10th inning, tied at 6 with the Reds. With a ghost runner on 2nd, Hoby Milner walked the first batter and was replaced by Thornton. All Thornton did was induce a double play and a ground out in 6 pitches. And the Cubs went on to get one of the 13 MLB-leading walk-offs. This was two days before their 2nd 10-game win streak came to an end.
The Cubs were at their peak on August 18, 2026, at 21 games over .500. But it feels like May 6, 2026 was that peak. They were 2 games under .500 on April 13th, and on May 18th, they had a 3.5 game lead. They were in 1st place for 19 games before May 18th, and they never got back--but they were close 3 months later. The team fought hard all year long, but the struggles started right after the 2nd 10 game win streak (it does feel insane that both of them were in April)--May 16th to May 26th was the 10-game losing streak. Adjusted roughly that is the era of the SMFDB slump.
This should be about Thornton, not the team, but his debut was a decisive moment, and it felt like he was being called up out of desperation and lack of other options. He was decent in AAA for 4 innings and got the call and he bailed out Milner and made the game winnable. He went on to go 5-5 with a 3.35 ERA in 48 innings. Maybe he deserves a B+.
He's been around a bit, in Toronto from 2019-2023 and Seattle from 2023-2025. Apparently he spent his rookie season as a starter in Toronto and didn't seem that great. He was awful in 2020 in very limited work. He pitched a similar number of innings to this year in 2021 and 2022 and had slightly worse results then (he had a Home Run Problem in 2021). He was excellent in 2023, which would be his best season if it were more than 31 innings. He pitched 78 in 2024 in what is justifiably his best season, and he took a bit of a step back in 2025, with his ERA going from 3.61 to 4.68--in 30 less innings. Which is about where he was with the Cubs--except with the 2nd best season-ending ERA of his career.
For the heroics in his debut, there were also games like 8/28/26 (also against the Reds), where he gave up 5 runs and blew the game, or on 7/29/26 in St. Louis to a less infuriating degree. He did become infuriated on 9/2/26 (against the Brewers)--after striking out Yelich, then giving up a walk and two hits, then getting pulled--and he got fired up when he succeeded. He might have made $2 million this year. He gave up 8 home runs in 48 innings, which isn't great. He has something of a Home Run Problem and we need all of the pitchers we can get that do not have that. Regardless, he was mostly successful, and probably worth $2 MM again.
Aaron Civale: A-
Wow I just realized today that Aaron Civale and I went to the same high school. I was just going to talk about how I did a double-take yesterday, glancing at the write-up from last year, and seeing his name there. I totally forgot he was on the team. In 2025, he went from the White Sox to the Cubs, and in 2026, he went from the A's to the Cubs. And it's sort of funny, he turned in very similar mediocre performances for the White Sox and A's, and the Cubs took a chance both years and both years he showed he's still got it--this year to a greater degree.
He only pitched 13 innings last year for us, and nearly triple that this year (36). The numbers otherwise seem to line up. His ERA last year for the White Sox was 5.37; this year for the A's, it was 5.42. His ERA last year for the Cubs was 2.08; this year for the Cubs, it was 1.72. I'm tempted to give Civale an A but the sample size is still a bit too small for that. His runs allowed totals line up--3 last year, 9 this year. He seemed slightly better last year in terms of giving up hits (7 in 2025, 27 in 2026) and K's (14 in 2025, 33 in 2026). But he had a bit of a Home Run Problem in 2025, giving up 3 (apparently all his runs allowed were solo shots, so the other numbers make a little more sense), and this year he only gave up 2. All this is to say, Civale may have been the best pitcher on the team, period. But it's too small a sample size. Regardless, I think he's proven that he deserves a place on the team. Ben Brown may have been the better pitcher, and Civale may not have made as big of an impact on the club as Webb or Rolison, but he felt like a calming presence, and that is sorely needed in every bullpen.
Hoby Milner: B
Daniel Palencia: C-
Palencia famously closed out the World Baseball Classic championship for Team Venezuela. He had effectively established himself as the closer of the team last year, and showed that he could compete on a very high level. It looked like this was the year he would take it to the next level, for real, but there were setbacks instead (to say nothing of Seiya's or Boyd's post-WBC hangovers). His numbers this year don't look that bad, at 2-2 with a 3.64 ERA. But he got injured, and he only pitched 29 innings. He was a little worse about walking guys and striking guys out but I didn't have any real problem with him until he returned from his injury. After that, he looked like the Palencia I dreaded in 2023 and 2024. Really, those games don't look that terrible.
He was fine in his first outing back, pitched a clean inning, but his second outing was the bad one (3 runs allowed on 8/25/26 in Arizona) and I guess that sticks in my mind because we were in that period of struggling and losing hope of catching Milwaukee. He gave up another run in his 3rd outing after this injury, then 2 runs in the 4th outing, and then another run in the 5th outing. After that--he was fine.
But then I guess he got injured again on 9/24/26 versus the Marlins. And people bemoan that we didn't pitch Clay Holmes in the postseason--but we did pitch Palencia. Or maybe he wasn't injured and he just wasn't used against the Red Sox. Maybe he was rusty.
It was a really weird end to the season and it's making excuses for the team, sure, but they ran into some horrible luck. I happened to be in Boston for my first game at Fenway on September 25th--but we had tickets for the 26th. The game on the 27th was moved to Friday for a doubleheader, and the game on the 26th was moved to Tampa Bay on the 27th, due to the Nor'easter. From there they flew straight to San Diego and were quickly dispatched from the playoffs in 2 games. Palencia pitched in game 2 and gave up one run. He didn't blow the game, but he made it that much harder to win, so maybe that sticks in my mind, too.
I don't think people trust Palencia to be the closer next year, but I think he'll probably get a shot at the job again. I really don't know. Everything seems to be so up in the air. He's still under contract and the good generally outweighs the bad, and even if he is not the closer, he could become an extremely effective setup man. He throws 100 and people value that nowadays. If he can maintain good control of his pitches--as he seemed to last year, and as he did this year more sporadically--then he's an extremely potent weapon. He probably deserves a C, or maybe even a C+, but basically, his mistakes were magnified to me because they came at the most crucial times. Which is maybe why relief pitchers aren't always fan favorites. Their job is thankless. However, La Gasolina was our version of Mason Miller, at times, and there's no reason he can't be in that category again.
Phil Maton: D
Maton's signing in the off-season was one of the biggest moves the Cubs made, relatively speaking. It was a 2-year contract for $14.5 MM, the first time Jed Hoyer signed a relief pitcher to a multi-year contract. And Maton had been very good for many years--you'd have to go back to 2021 to find a semi-mediocre season. But he mostly failed miserably as a Cub--to be fair, in part due to injury--and so occupies the unenviable position of the most groan-worthy player on the team.
I recall very early on in my life, that Dave Smith was the Cubs closer. And though he had been good (an All-Star for the Astros I believe), and mostly did relatively well as a Cub, I remember my mom groaning every time he came in, and he did seem to screw up a bit. For some reason, Maton reminded me of that. Maybe he reminded people of Latroy Hawkins, too. I digress.
This is probably because of how he performed right out of the gate. His first two appearances, in the season-opening series against the Nationals, were great. Clean innings (well, except for 1 walk in the 2nd game). Then in appearances #3-6, he gave up 2 runs each time. This was during our double 10-game win streaks, so it could be forgiven (though we did lose 2 of those 4 games). Actually in that 6th appearance, he was returning from a stint on the IL.
He then had 5 strong outings, unquestionably, only giving up 1 hit in 4.2 innings, with 6 Ks and 1 walk. This was the Maton that occasionally flirts with greatness.
Then he had a bad outing against the Braves, managed a good one the next day, and then got destroyed by the White Sox. After that, he didn't give up more than 1 run at worst each time, and maybe he wasn't actually that awful--he gave up just 6 runs total after May 17th. Maybe I'm being too harsh. I'll push him up to a D. But his ERA of 6.18 was quite bad.
He did end the season by giving up a run in each of his last 3 performances, so I guess the bad start and the bad end left a bad taste. Of course, he's our marquee reliever, and we're going to wipe this season away and start over in 2027 and I choose to believe that Maton will return to prior form. I actually feel pretty confident that he will. His name is pronounced May-ton, but I pronounced it Ma-tone, and I have faith that Maton will atone for 2026 in 2027.
Ethan Roberts: C+
Ethan Roberts went 0-2 with a 4.21 ERA in 25 innings--2 less than Maton--and comparatively speaking, he was a bargain. I always feel like people say Ethan Roberts has amazing stuff and is going to actually be good this year and then it doesn't seem to happen. This was his busiest season behind 2024, and 2024 is his best year. He wasn't terrible but I'd say he was the definition of 'mid.' Most likely I think, he will get another shot with the team in spring training, and if he can harness his potential--sometimes that takes a while for relief pitchers--he could potentially emerge and play a key role for the team.
Ryan Zeferjahn: B+
We end in the most appropriate place, at the end of the alphabet. Zeferjahn basically has 2 complete seasons and change (12 games in his rookie season) under his belt, so a deeper dive could be interesting. Basically, I did not like Zeferjahn at first. We traded Mo-Baller for him, and I liked Mo-Baller a lot--but I understood the trade and agreed it was a good move. We needed someone that had "nasty stuff" or "video game stuff" and Zeferjahn apparently had that, and importantly, also team control for 3 years. All that sounded great but when he came out and actually pitched, he felt like the second coming of Maton.
His first time out with the Cubs (8/4/26) was good--a clean 8th inning, perfect. Which was exactly the point. 2nd time out--not great. Gave up a HR and hit a guy. He could throw hard, but it seemed he lacked control. 3rd time out--fine, gave up a hit, but no damage. The 4th time? Terrible. Gave up 2 runs, 3 hits and a walk in 2/3 of an inning. The 5th time--fine, but gave up a hit and a walk. The 6th time--terrible again, gave up a walk and home run and 2 runs.
Around this point, I did not trust him. But note, each appearance had been in the 8th inning, and even though the 6th appearance was a blown save, the Cubs ended up winning each of those games. So, he made things scary, but he didn't lose the game for us.
However his 7th wasn't great either--gave up a run, and the Cubs did lose that game (8/21/26 versus Seattle). Actually, he did lose that game for the team, and that was a very crucial time. That Seattle series man, that period with Seattle/Arizona/Cincinnati leading up the 7 games against Milwaukee--the wind went out of the sails at that point. Even though the Reds were a "bad team," I don't think they were that bad. I'm surprised they finished where they did. At the beginning of the season, the NL Central was the strongest in baseball. Even the Cardinals, who famously took a bazooka to their roster, cobbled together a squad that played above expectations.
But his 8th appearance--like his 1st on the Cubs--was clean, perfect. The 9th--not so much--gave up a run and we lost. The 10th--again, clean, perfect (the one game we slaughtered the Reds). The 11th--bad again--2 runs, 2 hits. And by this point his season ERA was 4.23. I just did not trust RZ at this point, but after this, he righted the ship, with just one exception. After 2 perfect clean innings for his 12th and 13th, on his 14th, he blew his second save, and lost the game in Milwaukee.
Appearances #15-20 redeemed him in my eyes. He gave up 0 runs in 5 IP. He did give up 5 hits and 2 walks and a wild pitch in that stretch, and we won all those games---with the exception of 9/22/26 versus Miami. So, his fingerprints are also on that crucial game that allowed San Diego to creep up on us, though I believe more of the blame for that has been lumped on Matt Shaw's inability to lay down a sacrifice bunt.
He did end the season with another clean inning, and then he did pitch once in the postseason. He gave up a hit and a walk, but struck out 2 guys and escaped unharmed, though I'm not sure if he was pulled with runners on base. I seem to recall him escaping unscathed and sighing in relief (before collapsing in a heap).
He wasn't that great in 2025--6-5 with a 4.74 ERA in 57 innings, but boasted a K/9 rate of 11.5.
Overall, his 2026 was much better, despite the above results which we've held under a microscope. On the Angels, he was fantastic--4-3 with a 3.66 ERA in about 52 innings. His K/9 rate went up even more to 13.1, which is elite.
For his time on the Cubs, he was 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in 18 innings, and his K/9 rate dropped to 9.5--equal to his rookie season, which was actually pretty good. The numbers do not set the world on fire, but for 12 out of the 21 times he came in, he got the job done. Provided Maton returns to prior form and Palencia rights the ship, we could have a powerful 7-8-9 trio from the bullpen. We need that. Maybe we need a seriously legit closer. I don't mean to jump the gun, but the Cubs should go for at least 1 more total stud to bring out of the bullpen, and probably 2, if not 3. If I were them, I would go for Adrian Morejon, David Bednar, and Raisel Iglesias. That may be totally unrealistic. There are actually a lot of fairly good options. If they wanted, they could even give out a flyer to Kimbrel again, but that's not necessary. Our bullpen was one of the weakest things about the team, but they generally blew the games when the offense had failed. I don't think the starting pitchers were that terrible. I think we were in a terrible position, and we mostly did the best we could with what we had, and we were unlucky with Cabrera. When the team performed "normally," they were very, very good.
Do not forget that about this team. This team can certainly compete at a World Series level, when all of the gears click properly into place. That was probably the case for 50% of the games, and probably 60-70% of their wins--those other 30%, they grinded out. When they didn't work like a well-oiled machine (to continue with the cliches) or grind out victories, they were absolutely awful and painful to watch. This team had the highest highs and lowest lows of any Cubs team I've watched in my entire life. And as I mentioned at the top, I do not think I am alone in that observation.
Craig Counsell: A-
He could get a C+, B-, B, B+....pick your poison. This was Counsell's third season as Cubs manager. He spent 9 seasons in Milwaukee. He did better in these 3 seasons than he did in 3 of the seasons in Milwaukee. The other 6 were comparable or better than the 3 with the Cubs (there were 2 seasons with 86 wins, then 96, 89, 95 and 92). A lot of people say now, Counsell was not what made the Brewers good, and Pat Murphy has certainly been very successful since taking over. It's hard to say if Counsell has been a net positive or net negative, but he got ejected from 5 games this season and seemed a bit more fiery, and I think we all pretty much like that.
We were better last year, but I think if you ask most people, they will say the team as a whole was a stronger group, and some just did not perform as well--and ran into bad luck with pitching injuries.
We were certainly better than in 2024, and I do strongly believe we will be better in 2027. Go Brewers! Let them win the World Series. Let them have the hangover. We are certainly motivated. There were a lot of 10-year-WS-anniversary vibes in the city this summer, and today is actually the 10-year anniversary of their NLCS victory. Now, we are going to lose A LOT of guys, and who knows about the lockout, but if we play our cards right, there's no reason we can't improve on this season, equal or better the 2025 record, and advance to the playoffs, division series, NLCS, and even the World Series in 2027.
So what are the things that need to happen?
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(1) Horton and Steele must return and pitch like aces.
This may not happen. Neither may be ready, and neither may reach their previous heights. But, in the past they've shown they're in that category, and if they do return, full strength, the team would have 2/5 of a quality rotation. Some think this is a pipe dream (maybe 1 of them will come back and just be OK), but I prefer to be optimistic.
(2) The Cubs must sign an ace.
Of course, there is only one true ace that is available, and he's about 30. Give him a 5 year contract for $200 MM. He's probably going to want more than that. The Cubs are probably going to need to dig deep into their pockets. 5 years at $250 MM feels more realistic, and I wouldn't be surprised if his agent demands 5 years at $300 MM. It's Boras, ugh.
Boras will probably want more years--8 years, $400 MM may be the cost. I'm not sure that's worth it, but the Cubs are, in fact, one of the top suitors. I do think we could make do with one of the other available options, but signing Skubal would be a Statement, the likes of which they haven't made since Jon Lester established himself as the greatest free agent signing in franchise history (as people like to say).
Freddy Peralta is out there, and what an interesting season he's had, going from Milwaukee last year, to the Mets and finally to the Rays, where he's been very successful. Watch the World Series closely. Peralta knows he is in the spotlight, and it's his time to shine and establish his market value, which sits just under $30 MM/year, per Spotrac. There's no question Peralta makes sense. He was on the Brewers from 2018-2025--6 of those seasons under Counsell. He was just OK on the Mets (most pitchers were just OK with that defense behind them), and he's pitched at a very high level for the Rays, as good as he ever has (and he has been pretty good his entire career), except for the All-Star years of 2021 and 2025. If they can't land Skubal, Peralta would be a fine counsellation prize (shoot me, please).
Drew Rasmussen or Michael King would also be fantastic options, but they only have Club Options or Opt-Out options, and I don't think either the Rays or the Padres will let them go. They were too good when the games mattered the most.
After that, options are about what one would expect:
(3) The Cubs must sign a 2nd high-quality starter.
Nick Pivetta (club option)
Trevor Rogers (coming out of Baltimore unrestricted-though he was a bit more 'mid' in 2026 than 2025)
Robbie Ray (a feasible option that makes sense)
Joe Ryan (mutual option with Twins, forever on the Cubs wish list)
Nick Martinez (mutual option with Rays, not likely leaving)
Tyler Mahle (coming out of Atlanta unrestricted, like Rogers, a little 'mid'--however, he was bad on the Giants, and the Braves picked him up as a rental, and he was fantastic in 9 games--so he does apparently still have it)
Foster Griffin (coming out of Cleveland unrestricted, also picked up as a rental--the opposite of Mahle, fantastic in Washington, and mediocre in Cleveland in 9 games)
Michael Soroka
Sonny Gray
Sandy Alcantara
Kris Bubic
Corbin Burnes (would be a great option, but don't think he's leaving Arizona)
Brady Singer
Casey Mize
Dustin May
Jack Flaherty
Shane Bieber
Shane Bieber
Brandon Woodruff (unrestricted, and may be a bargain, but earned $22 MM this year and market value pegged at $11 MM feels off)
Zach Eflin
Bryce Miller
Max Scherzer
Kyle Freeland
Max Scherzer
Kyle Freeland
There are a couple other guys with market value pegged below $10 MM (Zac Gallen being the most interesting risk), but that's most of the available starting pitchers. I'm leaving out the Cubs--Boyd, Imanaga, Rea, Gausman, Holmes, and Peterson--who are all above that threshold.
About those Cubs...Bringing them all back seems foolish. I sort of wish we could, still, because if they all "exceed expectations," they're all more than capable. To be "safe," I'll say, sign Peterson, and then either sign Holmes or Boyd--possibly sign Rea if he doesn't ask for much, because his "swing man" versatility came in very handy in the past two seasons.
I think you need at least two of the guys from the above list, or someone comparable that could be brought over in a trade. If Skubal or Peralta is somehow acquired, you can probably grab Boyd or Imanaga and stick them at #4 or #5 in the rotation. Regardless, we need to go for both of them. If we got both of them, THAT would be a STATEMENT. But it would be a big statement anyways with Skubal + Ryan/Ray/Gray/Griffin/Mahle, or even Peralta + any of those again.
I like the idea of Woodruff, but maybe I am missing something. In any case, whatever "splash" the Cubs make in the starting pitcher free agent market is going to speak volumes about the teams prospects in 2027. It will show how serious they are, or how cheap they insist on being.
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***
With hitters, there are even more "Sophie's Choice" situations. The most obvious of which is Happ vs. Suzuki. That has been dissected above. And we also said we should re-sign Kelly.
(4) The Cubs must sign a quality outfielder and a platoon option at First Base.
The position players available in the free agent market are not quite as deep as the pitching market. Arozarena has been referenced above, and he may slot in well if Happ (and/or Suzuki--perish the thought) are lost. Jazz Chisolm is another possible option in the outfield, as is Daulton Varsho.
Luis Arraez would be an interesting option. I believe he mostly played 1st Base on the Phillies after being traded, and Busch proved this year that he should probably be platooned. If he hits 34 home runs as a platoon hitter, nobody is going to complain. Arraez has a career batting average of .316, which is unheard of in this era. He dipped below that all the way to .310 in 2026. I don't think anybody is expecting the Arraez of 2023 (.353--the middle of 3 consecutive all-star seasons), but the Cubs could use a .310 hitter very badly.
Yes, he only has 42 home runs in 3,840 at bats in his career. You are not going to get "pop" from him. He'd basically be Nico #2 on the team, but he would be a fantastic #2 hitter behind PCA (or alternatively, #9 if we were very deep). You do need to keep Suzuki or bring in someone else that has more "slug" if you go for Arraez. Frankly, I like this idea a lot.
If not Arraez, Ty France could be an interesting option to assist Busch at 1st Base. Him or Jake Bauers, but I feel like his value is shooting way up and the Brewers won't let him go (even though unrestricted). The Brewers also have an option on William Contreras--a very interesting option, but probably not one the Cubs will take.
If not Arraez, Ty France could be an interesting option to assist Busch at 1st Base. Him or Jake Bauers, but I feel like his value is shooting way up and the Brewers won't let him go (even though unrestricted). The Brewers also have an option on William Contreras--a very interesting option, but probably not one the Cubs will take.
Luis Robert, Jr. or George Springer are out there, both fairly risky options, but like Chisholm and Arozarena, potentially necessary depending on Happ and Suzuki. Taylor Ward might a decent option--and we're leaving out all of the Japanese players. Apparently, Teruaki Sato might be a stud.
There aren't really too many holes to fill, beyond the outfield and a reinforcement for Busch. So I think that's all we need to say about that. Brief mention of Bryce Harper--if we lose Suzuki, I wouldn't mind trying to trade for Harper--but I prefer to keep Suzuki. I am not sure what other "star" or "superstar" or "former superstar" players might be available via trade, but given the paucity of those here, that's certainly a consideration.
***
***
As for final thoughts, I think this season I probably watched more games and paid closer attention to games than any other previous year. And it was fun a lot of the time. And you know, we lost on opening day, but I was there. If you look at the top picture on this post, you probably can't zoom in and see me holding the flag, but that did in fact happen (and only due to a mischievous companion). It was rough to start off the season 0-1, and to spend $120 or whatever it was on a bleacher seat for a L. However, the experience of running out with the flag was very special--being on the field when the starting lineups were announced--and that made up for it. In a way, that extended through the entire season, all the way to the last game at Fenway--we attended game #1 and game #161, both L's. But in the middle, we went to PNC and saw the Cubs beat Skenes, and go on to slaughter the Pirates once he was taken out. Both PNC and Fenway were beautiful, and there were many beautiful moments this year, and I'm sad to have to wait another 6 months, and I'm nervous that may not even happen, but I'm cautiously optimistic. If you read this far, thank you, and as always, Go Cubs.
