So we come to the end of the second season of MLB, Covid-style, and this one looked much more normal. Capacities returned to 100% (even though 1,800 people are still currently dying on a daily basis) and 162 games were played. Certain rules remained in play: 7-inning doubleheaders, and the runner on 2nd base rule for extra innings, but no DH in the National League (not yet). The season felt much more normal than 2020, and the Cubs generally played better, but they did not do as well.
To explain: for those that have forgotten, the Cubs were absolutely terrible last year and they still somehow won the NL Central Division. They were quickly dispatched by the Marlins in the post-season. Then, in the off-season a number of things happened that did not bode well. No contract extensions were made. Jon Lester and Kyle Schwarber were traded to the Washington Nationals. Yu Darvish and Victor Caratini were traded to the San Diego Padres. Quite frankly, this was traumatic. The Cubs did pick up Zach Davies in the Darvish trade, and they did pick up Joc Pederson to replace Schwarber, but apart from that, they were cutting payroll, and going out for prospects.
With Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Baez all playing in the final years of their contracts, and with no extensions, their only option was to win everything and remain with the team through the end of the season, and hopefully, beyond. And for a long time--at least the first two months of the season--they looked capable of doing that. In May, the Chicago Cubs were basically unstoppable.
Part of this hinged on the success of their bullpen (which got off to a rocky start in April, accounting for a merely average record that month). At a certain point, they set a record for the most scoreless consecutive innings pitched. Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin, and Craig Kimbrel formed their own unofficial version of Nasty Boys. I was deeply saddened by the tribulations of Jeremy Jeffress, who languished on Twitter in 2021, bemoaning the unbelievable fact that nobody wanted him after being more-or-less perfect in 2020, but regardless, the bullpen emerged as one of the strongest in the MLB. This undoubtedly hit its high point when they achieved a combined no-hitter, the first such in franchise history. And then, the next day, their decline began.
Offensively, Kris Bryant returned to previous form, and made the All-Star team. Rizzo, while not an All-Star, played much better than in 2020, as did Javier Baez, though unfortunately his free-swinging ways essentially became his default. There is no more teaching plate discipline to Javy. He is simply himself, and will continue to occasionally dazzle and delight fans, while striking out swinging approximately 1/3 of the time. I think people stopped caring about that, here, and when he went to the Mets, their fans were not very happy when he did not put them over the top and into the playoffs (I'm sure it was very exciting for them at first, though).
Really, this was a season of two teams, with the trading deadline as the dividing line. It was a sad year, for many reasons, and Cubs fans may now feel their "dynasty" is over (for comparison, look to the Blackhawks--though the NHL is not the MLB, perhaps that is what happens when you stick with your core--still, there is a whiff of hope for them with each season, though they haven't been the same since Hossa retired). But at least an opportunity cropped up for someone that we were lucky to see.
Frank Schwindel: A
We now live in the SchWindy City. Is he a rookie? Does it matter? You can consider him a rookie. He's 29. He hit .067 for the Royals in 15 plate appearance and at-bats in 2019. He didn't play in 2020, and in 2021, he hit .150 for the A's in 20 plate appearance and at-bats. So he had walked up to the plate 35 times in his major league career before the Cubs picked him up after the A's DFA'd him, after the Cubs traded away Rizzo and needed a replacement infielder. Enter Schwindel, who proceeded to hit .342 in 222 at-bats and 239 plate appearances, and who made the Offspring song "Self Esteem," one of the most perfect walk-up songs of the year. I think it's his rookie year, and it's sad that he didn't get more playing time, because he seemed like the real deal, and would have won that award. It seems rather clear that Schwindel will enter 2022 as an essential everyday player in the Cubs lineup. We should not expect him to fill Rizzo's shoes--not yet, at least--but he is one reason to have hope, to be excited after such a depressing year. But he wasn't the only star that emerged.
Patrick Wisdom: B+
Patrick Wisdom was the silver lining to this season---before Frank Schwindel emerged. This could also be considered his rookie year, despite brief appearances for the Cardinals and Rangers. And I think he was a very good rookie of the year candidate. However, he only had about 100 more at-bats than Schwindel, and his greatness faded down the stretch, as his average dropped and his strikeout rate went up and as it seemed he was swinging for the fences regardless of the pitch because he wanted to mimic Javy's energy after his departure. He did not replace Kris Bryant--but Kris Bryant became incredibly versatile, and an afterthought as the everyday 3rd baseman. Wisdom also plays 1st Base and Left Field, but as a 3rd baseman, he definitely was trying to bring some KBE on days when Bryant was elsewhere on the field--i.e., no one is more attractive than Kris Bryant, though other 3rd basemen, such as Nolan Arenado, may try to approach the level, as does Wisdom (though I think many acknowledge Arenado as the superior player, though KB was close to equal this year). Wisdom, also, should remain a fixture in the 2022 starting lineup, but it's possible pitchers have figured him out and he will need to make adjustments. His strikeout rate, I've heard, ended up being about 40%, even worse than Javy's, I think, so that is why he gets a B+ and not an A-, because his batting average also dropped. I think we should continue with the other, probable, next year fixtures. No pitcher/hitter segregation for this year's report card.
Kyle Hendricks: B-
Hendricks's trajectory each year is predictable. He is a slow starter. This is probably why he still has not made an All-Star team, and this year, he really should have made it. At the time he was tied for the MLB lead in Wins, but people don't care about Wins anymore. He finished 14-7 with a 4.77 ERA and 180 innings pitched. This is a totally respectable year. The reason Hendricks grade slips to what must be his lowest since his debut, is because he did something he hasn't done, which is to decline as the season wound down. Perhaps this was because he didn't think it mattered, there was less anxiety with every game that might be important for the playoff run, as there has been every other year. I am not saying he didn't play as hard, but I am saying there was no hope of this team making the playoffs, earlier than in any other year since 2014. And his placement 3rd in this year's report card is questionable. Some people think he may be shipped off in the next 6 months. He's a very attractive piece for any team that is in the playoff mix, and I don't expect any different from him next year. Expect a slow start, but then again, we will have to see how he plays for a team that is not in contention (most acknowledge that the Cubs will not be competitive in 2022, but perhaps in 2023). He is still the de facto opening day starter and one of the last legitimate stars left from the dynasty. There is one other, that we also hope will never leave us (or be forced to leave us...).
Willson Contreras: B
Pictured here silencing a crowd at an away game, Willson's attitude and emotion did not flag, and though he had a weaker season, I do not think anyone lost faith in him. After the core was destroyed, Willson survived, and seemed to acknowledge that he would be one of the team's leaders going forward (perhaps replacing Rizzo as the "captain," and I still do not want to accept that Rizzo will not return...). He only hit .237 with 21 HRs and 58 RBIs. Patrick Wisdom was the better offensive player, but Willson's OBP was about 50 points higher. Sometimes, though, there are intangibles, and Contreras has that special quality that makes him a franchise cornerstone, and it is reasonable to expect that he will remain that, at least in 2022.
Jason Heyward: D+
It was two steps forward for Jason Heyward in 2019 and 2020, and one step back in 2021. Heyward's status in Chicago is well-known. We need not repeat it again. He was nominated for the Clemente Award this year, and while I do not think he will win a Gold Glove again this year, I would not be totally surprised. In any case, his batting average was .214 and he hit 8 home runs and drove in 30 runs in 323 at bats. He did walk 27 times and his OBP was .280, but this is not the Jason Heyward of the past 2-3 years. Something happened. Maybe COVID, and his vaccination status (still not sure if that has changed, but it was surprising he was not), maybe that injury was worse than we were led to believe (a common trick this team liked to pull), or maybe he just didn't have it. Heyward has intangibles, like Willson, and he is an excellent fielder, but the offense is just not there. I do think Cubs fans would be happy if he returned to form of recent years--hitting above .250 would probably be good enough to satisfy them. It doesn't seem like they will (or can) do anything with him, so he is likely to remain, now a PT player essentially, and we can say that he is still young, he has already had a mystifying career, and anything seems possible with him. But experience shows that we should not expect a high ceiling 2022.
Ian Happ: C+
Last year's best player (or perhaps 2nd best after Heyward, depending on your view) shriveled up in the first half of 2021, when he might have made a difference, and apparently had a pretty decent 2nd half, so his numbers don't look that bad, except for his batting average (.225).
A note on batting averages: at the beginning of this year, before the "sticky stuff" controversy that resulted in new MLB rules to level the playing field between pitchers and hitters, it was often remarked that the league average batting average was about .245. Maybe that went up after, but regardless, it seems as though we should reset our expectations for what is considered a "good" hitting percentage.
He did hit 24 home runs and drive in 64 RBIs in 457 at-bats, and drew 58 walks, good for a respectable .319 OBP. It wasn't all bad, really, but it was his anemic performance in the first half that sticks in my mind because--let's face it--after they gave up on the season and deconstructed, I pretty much stopped watching. So his inconsistency continued, but it appears he is done with AAA, at least, and one hopes that he returns in 2022 in 2020 form, and is once again in the MVP conversation. There is a world in which the 2022 Cubs are contenders, and in that world, Happ, Schwindel, Wisdom, and Contreras are All-Stars. It's not inconceivable. I cannot predict with any kind of certainty whether Happ will be good or not in 2022. But I lean towards further improvement.
David Bote: D+
Last year's RBI leader drove in 34 this year in 286 at bats, hit .199, 8 HRs and 25 BB for a .270 OBP. So he was pretty comparable to Jason Heyward. Mr. Clutch, he was not. And when the Cubs had that demoralizing 11-game losing streak, Bote was on the IL, and we could partly explain that skid by his absence. But when he returned, he wasn't the same. Bote is pretty inconsistent. He comes up huge in certain situations, but that happened less this year than normal (for him). Hitting below .200 is unacceptable for an everyday player, and Bote was not an everyday player (never has been, for the most part, though has often made a case for himself). I do expect him to remain in 2022, and play a certain role. One hopes for a resurgence, and it would not be that unusual for him to be one of the leaders of the team.
Nico Hoerner: B+
Though none of them were heralded as stars of the team, I do not think it was a coincidence that the Cubs went on their fatal 11-game skid in part because Jason Heyward, David Bote and Nico Hoerner were on the IL. Of those 3, Hoerner was the best (he actually batted over .300), but played the least, and was injured the most. Hoerner is in a rather unique position on the team, not totally unlike Starlin Castro, who, though he debuted in 2010, stayed on through 2015 and contributed to that playoff run. Hoerner debuted while the Cubs were still contenders, suffered some unfortunate injuries that kept him from playing a major role on the team, and now appears poised to stay through this next re-build. Perhaps he will be a similar player to Castro in the end---not a Hall of Famer, but one that cobbled together an impressive resume. It looks like Castro will pass 2,000 hits in the next 2-3 years. That should be a success in anyone's book. Hoerner may not get there but I do think they are comparable, except Castro seemed to have more speed and power. That said, Hoerner is still very young....
Matt Duffy: B
For a minute, when the Cubs were firing on all cylinders, it felt like 2016. That year, the team worked beautifully together as a unit. A new guy would step up every day to make the difference to put them over the top for the win. That hasn't been the case over the past few years, and so when Matt Duffy first appeared to be doing this sort of thing (along with Patrick Wisdom), it did a great deal to inspire confidence in the team. His signature "thumbs up," became a team-wide gesture. He came through in various clutch moments, but unfortunately, around the time cracks began to show in the team, I distinctly remember two games, not far apart, where Duffy was up as the last batter in the game, with an opportunity for a walk-off or at least to keep the game going. He got out both times, and I dismissed him as being "underrated overrated." Regardless, along with Rizzo, he put the bat on the ball. He was a good contact guy. He ended the year hitting .278 with an OBP of .347 (not stellar, but respectable in 2021). I am unclear on his contract status, but as 2022 looks to be a year of rebuilding (I would prefer "re-imagining"), and as he is roughly the same age as Wisdom and Schwindel, that trifecta should stay in the infield and daily lineup. They are not Rizzo, Bryant and Baez, but if forced to comp, Duffy would be the Rizzo, Schwindel would be the Baez, and Wisdom would by the Bryant (obviously).
Adbert Alzolay: C
Look, I love Adbert. I still think he should be in the starting rotation next year. And people says Wins don't mean quite what they used to, but when you go 5-13, there is not much nice to say. His ERA, 4.58, does not seem very bad, in comparison to recent history, but in this particular year, when hitters could not hit, in part because pitchers became very sneaky, it is average at best. This was Adbert's first big year, and he pitched 125 innings, compared to 12 in 2019 and 21 in 2020. He looked great, at first, in 2019, but his ERA ended up at 7.30. In 2020, he was better in limited action, and pitched like the Adbert we know he can (and will!) be, 1-1 with a 2.93 ERA.
He is a fountain of enthusiasm. If you need proof, go to his
Twitter account. He loves the game, and he loves playing for the Cubs. This is the type of person you want on this team. 2021 sucks for a lot of reasons, but Adbert should
not be written off based on a below average performance. Of all the grades I am forced to give, this is the hardest. I want to give him a C+ but it would not be fair to others. The "new core" will not be the old core, at all, but Adbert and Nico will be the interim holdovers, from one era to the next, along with their elders Ian Happ and Willson Contreras and Kyle Hendricks. We hope.
Alec Mills: C+
Is it fair to give Alec Mills a C+, when I gave Alzolay a C-? Not sure. But Mills had to play a more complicated role on this team. His ERA was higher than Alzolay's at 5.07, but his record was 6-7 in 20 starts and 119 innings pitched. He should have been a lock for the rotation this year after throwing a no-hitter last year, but he wasn't. He got injured a couple times. He effectively turned into the long reliever that he had been before, returning to starting after the departure of his pseudo-successor, Zach Davies. I gave Mills a higher grade than he deserved last year because of the no-hitter. And this year, I think C+ is fair, but maybe even B- would be fair, because I still really like him, and I still think he should part of the rotation next year. No matter where he pitches, he is a valuable member of the team, and I would anticipate improvement next year as well.
Zach Davies started off in a difficult position--as the replacement for Yu Darvish that no one wanted. He was the only piece of that trade that had any immediate return, and the Cubs got him to fill in Darvish's spot in the rotation. He was not an ace, but he had pitched quite well in 2020. This year was a mixed bag. At times, Davies looked masterful, and the Cubs had a trifecta of the slowest pitchers in baseball (Davies, Mills, Hendricks). Other times, he looked as bad as any of the worst pitchers they had featured over the past several years. Perhaps his performance is best summarized in the no-hitter that he helped to throw. Though he played the biggest part in that game, throwing 6 no-hit innings, he gave up numerous walks. You then had Tepera, Chafin and Kimbrel come in to save it--and these guys largely performed the way they had all season long. So Davies deserves some credit, to be sure, but he did not pitch like the All-Star we were hoping he would. Looking at his stats, he went 6-12 with a 5.78 ERA in 148 innings pitched. Seeing this, I had previously given Alzolay a C-, but I moved that up to a C, and I moved Davies down from a C+ to a C. Now this seems sort of unfair as Davies did throw a no-hitter (gets partial credit for it, at least), started 32 games, and pitched very well at times. But for just as many games as he mastered his opponents, his opponents mastered him, and when he looked bad, he would get absolutely crushed and the game would be out of reach (I am speaking from anecdotal experience, so take that as you may). He is on the Giants now, he is still young, and he did not do himself many favors with this season--but there was the no-hitter, and there were many bright spots. A difficult grade to give.
Justin Steele: B+
While he is not going to register in any Rookie of the Year ballots, and while this was a small sample size (arguably next year he would be a true rookie), Steele stepped up after the Cubs were deconstructed and pitched decently, going for 4-4 with a 4.26 ERA. He pitched in relief for 11 games and started 9 games. Many people consider him a lock for the 2022 rotation along with Hendricks, and perhaps Alzolay. I do not know very much about him, but I went to two games this season, and he started the second one. He ended up losing. But apart from that, when I saw him pitch, he didn't mess things up too badly. In a way, that is all you want from a 4th or 5th starter in the rotation. Right now, I would still give Alzolay the slot ahead of him. The 2022 Cubs, at this moment, would have a very average to below average rotation. But, both Steele and Alzolay may have yet to reach their potential. There is another starter coming up in the minor leagues that apparently many people are very excited about, but I can't recall his name at the moment. People are saying he will be in the rotation as well, but I will believe it when Spring Training comes around.
***
There are several others on this team that are apparently, still here. Some of them are Rafael Ortega (pretty decent!), Sergio Alcantara (not too bad!), Robinson Chirinos (fine!), Brad Wieck (good!), Rowan Wick (just OK), Keegan Thompson (good!), Trayce Thompson (amazing but small sample size!), Jason Adam (I don't know!), Nick Martini (???), Austin Romine (serviceable!), Andrew Romine (what!)...is Miguel Amaya really on the roster now? I've heard a lot about him. Nick Madrigal is a solid pickup. I've written too much and didn't see enough of these guys in action to provide fair assessments.
Everyone Else That Left:
Kris Bryant: A
Anthony Rizzo: C+
Javy Baez: B+
Craig Kimbrel: A+
Andrew Chafin: A
Ryan Tepera: A-
Joc Pederson: B
Trevor Williams: C+
Jake Arrieta: D
Jake Marisnick: C+
There are probably a few I am forgetting. I could wax philosophical about the 2016 Cubs, and really, the Cubs from 2015-2020, but my feelings should be obvious to most. There is not much to be excited about in 2022, but some of the prospects featured in this
article provide some semblance of hope, in the near future. I hope we will be competitive in 2022, but realistically I think 2023 is when that will happen. That said, nobody expected the San Francisco Giants to go where they went this year, and while baseball does, generally, work out the way it is supposed to, what with the long season, unpredictable injuries, the strength of proven stars, statistics upon statistics upon statistics that can accurately predict win totals (since when have analysts been able to differentiate between a 90 win and a 95 win team?), there is always still the chance for some spark from an unexpected source. For now, we can only hope that Schwindel will save us all.
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