Because of this I'm not sure it's prudent to give out a report card. But I can say, for the franchise, overall, this year gets a C-
C- because they brought on Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki. And because there were apparently bright spots after I stopped paying attention.
Mainly this seems to have come in the pitching. While he had something of a rocky start, Stroman ultimately performed as expected, leading the team in innings pitched, and turning in a solid season. Keegan Thompson and Justin Steele emerged as two reliable pitchers that are entering their prime.
I don't really know what happened with Kyle Hendricks. It seems he must have gotten injured. It was unfortunately his worst season with the Cubs, I think most can agree. We all have to hope that the old Kyle will return in 2023.
If he does, they've got a solid rotation. So that's a big piece of the puzzle. They had a great closer in David Robertson, and he did what he could and showcased his wares before being traded to a better team that is actually willing to spend money (the Phillies). Actually, tonight he will be playing against the Cardinals in the wild-card game. [Ed: And as of the date of this post, they could advance to the NLCS today with a win over the Braves---by the way, has the NLDS always been a best of 5? Because I thought it was best of 7...]
The main story with the players was Willson Contreras, who along with Kyle Hendricks represented the last of the 2016 squad (and Jason Heyward, too). Maybe Hendricks was injured, I'm not sure. Heyward was released, and it seems as though he will not play for the Cubs in the last year of his contract and so does that mean he gets paid for not playing? He did what he could and he will be remembered for his contributions. I don't think it played out the way most people were hoping it would. Contrast that signing with Jon Lester's, and you have one of the best transactions and one of the worst transactions right around the same time. But Willson came up through the Cubs farm system and proved himself to be one of the team's greatest stars. I can't speculate about what is going to happen with him. I would not be surprised if he is playing for another team next year. I hope the Cubs decide to keep him for the remainder of his career but I don't really see it happening.
Nico Hoerner pretty much showed up this year and lived up to the pseudo-hype. Ian Happ played reasonably well. Frank Schwindel did not, unfortunately, and I think he was released.
Christopher Morel was amazing, I remember paying attention to him, and I think he ended up playing O.K. except his batting average dropped. Suzuki was extremely exciting at the beginning of the season too, but he was injured for a bit, and ended with merely decent stats.
The general consensus seems to be that the Cubs hit some kind of stride, almost like a mini-Atlanta Braves of 2021. After the All-Star break, they went through a certain period where they played better than any other team in the MLB. For like two or three weeks, I think. So that was something.
***
Jed Hoyer delivered a press conference on Monday, 10/9/22. He confirmed that they would make a qualifying offer to Willson Contreras. The general feeling is that it will be a lowball offer and will be rejected. I can't profess to know enough about the team to guess what they will do at the catcher position, but Yan Gomes was a reliable back-up option this year. I do know Miguel Amaya has been hyped, for years, and also beset by injuries. In short, if we lose Willson, it will be difficult to replace him. Frankly, he is irreplaceable.
Since we mentioned Gomes, and he is in this picture, it is appropriate. But we really need to talk about Kyle.
Now anyone that has read these updates going back to 2015 or 2014 knows that Kyle Hendricks has always been one of my favorite players on the team. He has been solid. For years. In 2016, do you remember, Arrieta, Lester and Hendricks? Hendricks finished ahead of Lester for the Cy Young, and led the MLB in ERA. No one really knew about him back then, and still, after everything, he never has made the All-Star team. This is just Kyle's way. He starts slow. In April and May, he starts slow, he is imperfect. But he rights the ship, and he finishes the year putting up numbers consistent with his role as the Ace on the team.
Of course, when we had Yu Darvish, he took something of a backseat, but I believe he was still #1 in the rotation. Now that we have Marcus Stroman, he is in a similar position, and unfortunately, after his performance not only this year, but also last year, I would be surprised if he is the Opening Day starter and not Stroman.
Kyle signed an extension a few years ago that kept him locked up until 2023, so he will be with the team next year (though at the present moment, he has not thrown a baseball for a while, as he has been injured). Nobody considered this a bad idea, and I still don't. Kyle is still pretty young, and in his prime years. Pitchers can still be amazing as they age. Adam Wainwright was still very effective this year, and nobody can claim that Justin Verlander has lost a step. (Relatedly, nobody considered the failure to get Verlander when they had the opportunity a good idea.)
The Cubs literally could have done almost anything in 2017 and 2018 and 2019 to be big-time competitors. Yu Darvish was a big move, but beyond that, they didn't want to mess with their core, not until 2021. 2020 was a very strange season, but we did finish in 1st place. They were still good in 2021 up until the end of May.
This year? We sucked, so bad, until they had already given up on the season, and it became a "futures showcase," and then they played surprisingly well, for a time. Ironically, they beat the Phillies every single time this season, and now the Phillies are a Cinderella story (and make no mistake that I am rooting for them, with Schwarber and Castellanos together in their outfield as they should still be on the Cubs).
Nico Hoerner emerged. He has been emerging for years. He has gone back and forth as being a bust and as living up to his potential. It seems clear, after 2022, that he has lived up to his potential and "figured it out," for lack of a better phrase. He led the team in batting average. He actually hit for a higher average in 2021 (over .300), but he played in 3 times as many games this year, and finished at .281.
Now, this shows a problem with the team: your best hitter should be hitting better than .281. Regardless, Nico is that guy. Disciplined at the plate, an above-average fielder, and versatile as either a shortstop or second baseman, Nico is likely to play a significant role on the 2023 team, as a borderline everyday starting player (135 games this year, and he also got 135 hits).
This is complicated by the recent revelation of Carlos Correa leaving the Twins and opting out of his contract there. Correa has explicitly spoken about his desire to play with the Cubs. Correa is frequently cited as the biggest star free agent available. If the Cubs go after Correa, they will send the signal that they are very serious.
If the Cubs signed Correa this off-season, it would be like signing Jon Lester in 2015. We do not expect to necessarily get anywhere in 2023, but we could very easily make a surprise run to the NLCS, if the pieces fell into place in the way they did in 2015 (unlikely, however, that you will have someone like Arrieta step up and go on one of the most torrid stretches for any pitcher in baseball history--that was 2015, right?).
However, if the Cubs are truly going to compete, they need more than just Correa. They need another pitcher, too.
We did get this guy. Is Stroman comparable to Jon Lester? Way too early to say. You can't quite put them in the same category, as Lester is a borderline Hall of Famer, and beginning to be recognized as the greatest free agent signing in franchise history. But Stroman has been very good, and while he did not have a great supporting cast, his numbers at the end of the year are satisfactory, given the ostensibly weak run support. With Stroman and Hendricks, you have two of the great "ground ball pitchers" of today, and they are solid, solid rotation guys (presuming that Hendricks has not gone off a cliff for good---and knowing Kyle, that will not be the case). You do need to round out that rotation, and Justin Steele is likely going to be part of that rotation. For the last two slots, that remains to be seen. Drew Smyly was probably above-average for this team, and Keegan Thompson has shown flashes of greatness, though it remains to be seen if he is more valuable as a reliever or a starter. You could just go with Stroman/Hendricks/Steele/Smyly/Thompson or Adrian Sampson or Alzolay (again), but I think you need at least one star pitcher to add to that rotation. This post isn't going to lay out all the best options for the team, but is Verlander available? Because I would totally go for him again if he is, even in the twilight of his 30's. Given that he may win the Cy Young this year, I seriously doubt he will be going anywhere.
In terms of relievers, however, I will always support Jeremy Jeffress, and highly suggest the Cubs take another chance on him. Just invite him to Spring Training! That is all I ask.
We really need another hitter, though. We did get this guy, and in the first couple weeks of the season, he was totally on fire and basically looked good in every single one of his plate appearances. No one could be expected to remain that consistent throughout the entire season, and injuries compromised Suzuki's overall performance. Regardless, I do not think anyone considers this a bad move. They did not get Shohei Ohtani (though they possibly could have, it is best not to cry over spilt milk) but they got Suzuki, and you have to figure that he will be an everyday starting player. He would have shared time with Jason Heyward, but Heyward will not be playing for the Cubs in 2023. No one considers that a good move, but we all still will always be appreciative of the contributions Jason made to the enterprise. Sometimes you have players that don't do much in terms of numbers, but play an indispensable role on the team.
(Recall, for example, Jack Haley on the Chicago Bulls rosters with Dennis Rodman. Haley did not really play--he might have played a few minutes each season--but he was Dennis Rodman's friend, and Dennis Rodman played better knowing Jack Haley was on the bench. So sometimes players that make no statistical impact actually make a huge impact behind the scenes.)
So we have talked about the rotation, for which we need at least 1 high-quality starter, possibly 2.
In the field, it plays out like this:
C- Willson/Yan Gomes (for now--and I do not think anyone would complain if it stays this way.)
1B - ?
2B - ?
SS - Nico Hoerner
SS - Nico Hoerner
3B - Patrick Wisdom
RF - Seiya Suzuki
CF - Christopher Morel
LF - Ian Happ
You see I don't really know enough about the team. David Bote is able to play some of those positions. But I think you need another outfielder, too. You already know who I think would have been great (they are both on the Phillies). There must be a fair number of players out there that would be serviceable in these roles. But, let's say they get Correa. If they get him, I think they still need another star hitter.
DH is now part of the NL. I keep forgetting that. Also, next year, every single team will play every single other team, which most people think is cool, so far as I have heard.
I would take a flyer on Nelson Cruz. He did not do well on the Nationals this year, and his career may finally have reached its endpoint, but I would at the very least, give him a shot at Spring Training. He would be very low-cost, and could potentially stage a comeback and add more power coming off the bench.
The best part of the year was when Christopher Morel made his debut. He reached safely in the first 14 games of his MLB career, which was a record for the franchise. The Cubs were always looking for a real leadoff hitter, since Dexter left us, and there were many interesting experiments (Rizzo still the greatest) but Morel-Contreras 1-2 in the lineup was brilliant. Javier Baez was gone but Christopher Morel arrived. They're not quite the same players but Morel's energy seemed just as infectious with his teammates. He is not, say, Juan Soto, but I think most people that watched the team last year would not object to his appearing in the opening day lineup.
***
There's not much more I can say other than provide a list of targets the team should pursue (apart from Jeffress and Cruz, and hoping they will make a competitive offer to Contreras):
(1) Carlos Correa
(2) Justin Verlander (more realistic than De Grom) (I would trust for a 2 year contract, assuming Verlander is Brady-like, as they share a similar sleep regimen and have supermodel wives*.)
(3) Anthony Rizzo (he belongs here, and everyone knows it; same goes for KB and Javy.)
(4) Trea Turner
(5) Gary Sanchez (as backup/option when Contreras is DH)
(6) Luis Severino
(7) Andrew Chafin + Craig Kimbrel
Get those guys, and you can go for the World Series in 2023. That is a fantasy, and the team is more likely to go for younger players in the hopes of going, realistically and sustainably, in 2024 until say, 2027. Whether it comes off remains to be seen. I'll certainly pay attention come April, and we can all hope that Summer 2023 will be more fun than Summer 2022.
*I've been informed that Gisele and Tom Brady are getting divorced. I'm sorry for their struggles, and boldly predict that Tom Brady's best days are, now, actually, behind him. I do not think anyone properly weights the value of a strong and supportive spouse.
No comments:
Post a Comment